The Seattle Mariners chase a series victory tonight when they host the Atlanta Braves.
Seattle claimed a 5-4 win to open the series on Monday, and my Braves vs. Mariners predictions expect it to win again.
Find out why in my MLB picks for May 5.
Who will win Braves vs Mariners today: Mariners (-125)
George Kirby threw just 43 changeups in 2025, with a 5% whiff rate.
This year, he’s already thrown 58 of them with a 30.7% whiff rate. That has helped him generate a career-high 56.5% ground-ball rate, well above his 44.2% lifetime metric.
The Atlanta Braves had just nine hits last night, and four of them were solo bombs. Without Ronald Acuna Jr. or Michael Harris II in the lineup, they simply aren’t creating enough runs.
Bryce Elder will give them a solid start, but his inability to generate strikeouts or limit contact will lead to the Seattle Mariners scoring enough to win.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves have a line-drive rate of just 18.3% on changeups this season, the fifth-lowest of any team.
Braves vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
Kirby’s changeup is a tremendous complement to his sinker and sweeper. Opponents have posted an xSLG of .189 and xBA of .161 against the pitch.
It’s helped him post career lows so far in ERA, xERA, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon.
Elder’s allowed just two homers in 37 IP, despite a career-low ground-ball rate. A key reason has been an improvement in limiting pull rate, thanks to adding a cutter to his arsenal.
Both starters should limit runs and eat innings in a ballpark that doesn’t give much to hitters. With Acuna, Harris, and Raleigh all on the shelf, this has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair.
- ML/RL bets: 4-5, -1.42 units
- Over/Under bets: 6-3, +2.91 units
Braves vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Braves +117 | Mariners -122
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (-186) | Mariners -1.5 (+163)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+108)
Braves vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+7.10 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mariners.
How to watch Braves vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, Mariners.TV |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.88 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (4-2, 3.00 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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