The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians head back to Progressive Field for a winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 tonight, with Sean Burke opposing Gavin Williams.
My White Sox vs. Guardians prop picks lead with the Williams strikeout market, back Chase DeLauter for two bases, and take a shot on Miguel Vargas going deep.
Check out the rest of my MLB picks for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Best White Sox vs Guardians props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Williams o6.5 strikeouts
Vargas 1+ home runs
Prop pick #1: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 strikeouts
I'd play Gavin Williams Over 6.5 strikeouts to 65%.
Williams led the American League in strikeouts this season, punching out 248 batters in 184 1/3 innings for a 33.2% strikeout rate. The Chicago White Sox hand him a lineup that goes down swinging, striking out in 24% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
He has already shown the ceiling in this exact matchup. Williams struck out 11 White Sox hitters in Game 2 before exiting in the sixth inning, the second-highest total in a Cleveland Guardians postseason game.
Cleveland used him for 18 pitches to close out Game 4 and treated the outing as his normal between-starts throwing session, so he arrives Saturday on schedule. Seven strikeouts is within reach even if he does not finish the sixth.
Prop pick #2: Chase DeLauter 2+ total bases
I'd play Chase DeLauter 2+ total bases to 46%.
DeLauter put up a .450 SLG with 13 home runs and 19 doubles against right-handed pitching this season while keeping his strikeout rate down at 14.7%. He puts the ball in play and consistently does damage.
The pitch mix is where this one gets interesting. Sean Burke throws his four-seamer more than any other pitch, and DeLauter slugged .601 against four-seamers this season. He also posted a .596 SLG against sliders and .461 against sinkers, so Burke's secondary stuff offers no easy escape.
One extra-base hit cashes this, and two singles do the same. DeLauter does not need to leave the yard.
Prop pick #3: Miguel Vargas to hit a home run
I'd play Miguel Vargas to homer to 16% for a quarter unit.
Vargas gives us a better price than the shorter home run options in Chicago's lineup. He hit 21 home runs with a .447 SLG against right-handed pitching this season, and his Statcast profile backs it up with a 13.5% barrel rate and 45.1% hard-hit rate.
He can punish Williams. Vargas slugged .649 against sweepers, .532 against sinkers, and .568 against cutters, all offerings Williams goes to regularly.
Vargas has also been Chicago's most dangerous bat in this series, reaching base 12 times and homering in Game 4.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
