Jameson Taillon has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season.
Cincinnati is one of the best home run hitting teams in the majors, which is why my Reds vs. Cubs predictions see the road team keeping it close.
Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 5.
Who will win Reds vs Cubs today: Reds +1.5 (-145)
Jameson Taillon has not pitched well this year. He has conceded at least three runs in four of his six starts, with the exceptions coming against the Angels and Mets – the last placed teams in their respective leagues.
What’s crazy is Taillon has had luck on his side. Opponents are hitting only .207 on balls put in play, which is an unsustainably low number. He’d be giving up even more runs if that number aligned with his .283 career BABIP.
The Cincinnati Reds should score in bulk against Taillon, giving them a great chance of keeping this game close.
COVERS INTEL: Cincinnati ranks fourth in doubles and fifth in homers against right-handed pitching this season.
Reds vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+100)
The Reds don’t hit for average but they have a ton of power, sitting tied for fourth with 46 homers.
That sets up well against Taillon, who has allowed nine home runs through 34.2 innings. His HR/9 of 2.34 is second highest among today’s projected starters.
Cincinnati isn’t the only offense set up for success. The Chicago Cubs rank third in runs per game and lead the league in wOBA against left-handed pitching. They’ll draw a struggling lefty in Andrew Abbott, who has averaged 3.3 earned runs against this season.
- ML/RL bets: 12-5, +4.88 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-10, -4.06 units
Reds vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati (+140) | Chicago (-160)
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-145) | Chicago -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-120) | Under 8.0 (+100)
Reds vs Cubs trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs.
How to watch Reds vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, MARQ |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41 ERA) |
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Reds vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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