Our White Sox vs. Guardians expert picks for Game 5 are all over the place!
We've got one expert on each side of the fence in this win-or-go-home affair, plus a White Sox vs. Guardians props play to consider.
Don't miss our White Sox vs. Guardians predictions for Saturday, Oct. 10.
White Sox vs Guardians expert picks for Game 5
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini: Vargas 2+ hits + runs + RBI |
46% |
 Todd Cordell: CHW ML |
44% |
 Quinn Allen: CLE ML |
57% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Miguel Vargas 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Price: 46¢ at Polymarket
Miguel Vargas was one of the most productive hitters in the White Sox lineup all season, and now we're getting him at this price in an elimination game against a pitcher he's historically crushed? Sign me up.
Vargas is 7-for-15 against Gavin Williams (.295 xBA, .548 xSLG) with a home run to his name. He's cashed this prop in three of four games this series, giving me the confidence I need to hit the button.
Todd Cordell's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 44¢ at Polymarket
I like the Chicago White Sox to take Game 5 and advance to the next round.
The Cleveland Guardians have not shown much life at the plate in this series. They have hit just .214 with a putrid xBA of .164 and xwOBA of .251.
Very rarely are they making elite contact, generating just two barrels over 102 batted ball events.
Gavin Williams will give the Guardians a fighting chance, but his feast-or-famine approach (elite K%, putrid hard-hit rate) will likely lead to some damage against a White Sox team that finished fifth in home runs.
Quinn Allen's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
I'm backing the Guardians tonight behind Gavin Williams. He's been lights-out in this series, posting a 0.60 FIP while not allowing a single barrel.
Cleveland also draws a favorable matchup against Sean Burke, who's already surrendered three home runs this postseason with a 47.8% hard-hit rate.
This could still be a tight Game 5, but with Williams suppressing quality contact and Burke giving up plenty of it, Cleveland owns the more trustworthy pitching matchup.
How to watch White Sox vs Guardians
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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