It's getaway day on the diamond, with a litany of afternoon games to make MLB picks on.
We're getting into our expert's MLB best bets right away, jumping on the first game of the day and carrying into the afternoon based on prices from Polymarket, which allows baseball fans all over the country to jump in on today's MLB action.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: WAS/PIT u8.5 |
+113 |
 Jon Metler: COL ML |
+163 |
 Neil Parker: BAL ML |
+108 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Nationals/Pirates Under 8.5
Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket
Who doesn't love an afternoon getaway spot with a high total? The wind is still blowing out, but neither the Nationals nor the Pirates took advantage yesterday in a 2-0 game... with just five total hits. The pitching matchup is stronger today, and both bullpens should be fully available. Getaway lineups also tend to feature a few bench bats, which can dilute the offense. This number looks a bit high, with a fair price in the -120 to -115 range, making the plus-money Under worth a look.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rockies moneyline
Price: 38¢ (+163) at Polymarket
The Rockies may be using an opener in Juan Mejia for this game, but the Astros are getting far too much respect in the market because of it. The Rockies are trading as a 38-cent underdog on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 42¢ dog in this spot. Ryan Weiss is on the mound for the Astros, and he’s allowing left-handed hitters to bat .357 with a 1.009 OPS this season. That's a problem against a Rockies lineup loaded with lefties at the top, including Mickey Moniak, Edouard Julien, and TJ Rumfield. If those hitters can work the count, Weiss is likely to leave pitches over the heart of the plate that they can attack — especially considering he ranks in just the 7th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, which is not a good sign for him — but a great sign for our bet.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Orioles moneyline
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
Guardians starter Parker Messick will face a tough test today, with the Orioles ranking third in wOBA against southpaws. The 25-year-old lefty has an unsustainable .227 BABIP and 100% strand rate — and the pendulum is set to swing in the opposite direction with a potent Baltimore lineup. Cleveland also ranks 20th in wOBA against righties, and Baltimore starter Shane Baz has allowed three runs or fewer in 22 of his past 34 starts.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees ML | -272 |
| Read analysis in our Angels vs. Yankees predictions | |
| Giants ML | +112 |
| Read analysis in our Giants vs. Reds predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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