Dodgers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Bauer Power

L.A. is a rare underdog tonight in San Diego, but the Padres have struggled this season against Dodgers starter Trevor Bauer. Is there enough in this matchup to back the favored Padres? Find out in our picks and predictions.

Posted: Jun 23, 2021 2:18 PM ET Updated: Jun 23, 2021 7:00 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres have won six games in a row and now will go for the three-game sweep of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers in the finale of their latest series.

Game 3 should be another hotly contested matchup featuring an excellent pitchers' duel as Trevor Bauer toes the rubber against Joe Musgrove. The Dodgers are a rare MLB betting underdog once again, do we dare pass up the value and back the streaking Padres?

Check out our free picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on Wednesday, June 23, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, SportsNet LA

Dodgers vs Padres odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

After 150 straight games as a favorite, Los Angeles is an underdog for the second time in three nights as it wraps up a three-game set with San Diego. TwinSpires opened San Diego a very slim -109 favorite and is out to -120 as of 7 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are getting 55 percent of moneyline bets and the Padres 56 percent of moneyline cash. "Good two-way action so far," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total upped from 7 to 7.5, with 71 percent of tickets/63 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Dodgers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Trevor Bauer (7-5, 2.45 ERA): Bauer bounced back from a sub-par three-outing stretch by shutting out the Diamondbacks on three hits over seven innings. Even with the little rough patch, Bauer is still pitching to a 2.45 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to a .170 batting average. 

Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.28 ERA): Musgrove has been as good if not better than Bauer this season. The right-hander owns a 2.28 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, but he had some trouble in his lone start against the Dodgers, pitching an inefficient three innings where he racked up 77 pitches.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Mookie Betts RF (Questionable), Cody Bellinger CF (Questionable), Corey Seager SS (Out), Scott Alexander RP (Out), Corey Knebel RP (Out).
Padres: Ha-seong Kim SS (Questionable), Dan Altavilla RP (Questionable), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Pierce Johnson RP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in Trevor Bauer’s last five road starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

The Padres’ pitching has been the story in the first two games of this series, limiting the Dodgers to just a combined four runs. Though things won’t get any easier against Musgrove, they will get a huge boost to an already stacked lineup as Cody Bellinger is expected to start in centerfield for this game.

That’s a big deal with a starting pitching matchup that is close to a coin flip. The Padres’ lineup has been better lately, but they are still lacking a little pop outside of Fernando Tatis Jr., ranking 16th in batting average and 18th in home runs. They’ve also had issues with Bauer this season, getting held to three earned runs on eight hits with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched over two starts.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, have so much depth they still rank second in scoring and sixth in OPS despite missing Bellinger and other key hitters for large chunks of the season. 

But at the end of the day, this one all comes down to betting value. While the pitching might be a coin flip, the lineups are not, and we can’t say no to the value with the Dodgers in this spot.

PREDICTION: Dodgers (+105)

Over/Under pick

The early money in this matchup came in on the Over, but that may have been a move to get the total to a number worth betting the Under because that’s the way we are leaning.

For starters, Bauer has allowed more than three earned runs just four times in his 15 starts this season and he has been almost as good on the road compared to at home. The right-hander is allowing opponents to hit just .164 in his 10 starts away from Dodger Stadium. 

As noted, Musgrove has been just as good as Bauer and has allowed two earned runs or fewer 10 times in 14 starts. 

On top of that, this game features two strong bullpens. The Dodgers rank 10th in ERA and fourth in opponent batting average while ranking second in both categories. Pitching has been the story in the first two games, why should this one be any different?

PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)

Dodgers vs Padres betting card

  • Dodgers (+105)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 6/23/2021 at 1:30 p.m. ET

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