Nationals vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Red Hot Fedde Looks To Keep Silencing Phillies

Erick Fedde has thrown 20 straight scoreless innings and faces a Phillies squad that has scored three or fewer runs in six of its last seven games. Not only do we like the MLB betting value on the Nats — but the total is too high as well.

Posted: Jun 23, 2021 8:34 AM ET Updated: Jun 23, 2021 11:35 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Erick Fedde Washington Nationals MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Foreign substance checks were the story in the opener between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies with Joe Girardi doing his best to not make any friends, particularly Max Scherzer.

But Washington was able to hold on for the win and will try to carry that momentum into the finale of this mini two-game set in Philly, where Erick Fedde will look to extend his filthy streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Will Girardi cry foul once again?

Check out our MLB betting free picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Phillies on Wednesday, June 23, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET.

Nationals vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MASN, NBCSP

Nationals vs Phillies odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This early start opened as a -108 pick 'em Tuesday night at DraftKings, where the host Phillies moved out to -118 overnight, and they are -112 at 11:30 a.m. ET today. The Phillies are taking 56 percent of moneyline bets, while the Nationals are landing 74 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 8.5 (Over -115) and is now 9 (Under -118), with 65 percent of bets on the Under and money running almost dead even.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Nationals vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Erick Fedde (4-4, 3.33 ERA): Fedde has given the Nationals another weapon in the rotation and the right-hander is on fire right now. Fedde has thrown 20 consecutive scoreless innings and has allowed just nine hits over his last three starts.

Vince Velasquez (2-2, 4.44 ERA): Velasquez was dealing when he first returned to the Phillies rotation, but the right-hander has fallen into a slump. Velasquez has pitched to a 7.88 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP over his last four starts, averaging just four innings per start over that span.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Nationals: Kyle Finnegan RP (Out), Daniel Hudson RP (Out), Aaron Barrett RP (Out).  
Phillies: Didi Gregorius SS (Out), Jean Segura 2B (Out), Brandon Kintzler RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-0-1 in Erick Fedde's last nine starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies.

Moneyline pick

Max Scherzer didn’t need a foreign substance to be filthy on Tuesday (no matter how many times Joe Girardi had him checked), leading to the Nationals' eighth win in their last nine games while the loss was the Phillies fifth in their last seven contests.

Scoring was once again a problem for the Phillies. The 3-2 loss was the sixth time in the last seven games they scored three runs or fewer — and things won’t get any easier in this one. As noted above, Fedde is on a hot streak and is limiting opponents to a .204 batting average this season.

Next up, he faces a Phillies team that ranks 20th in batting average and 23rd in OPS when it comes to hitting off right-handers. 

The Nats have had their own troubles scoring this season, ranking 28th plating just 3.98 runs per game. That said, they hit for a solid average and have been just missing that clutch hit. They should get a few more opportunities to improve on that against Velasquez.

The right-hander is allowing opponents to hit .288 off him over his last four starts but the bigger problem is that he is only lasting four innings a start. That means he has to hand the ball to a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA.

The Nationals have the hotter starter and the more trustworthy bullpen in this matchup, which means this is good value to back them.

PREDICTION: Nationals (-115)

Over/Under pick

The total for this game seems a bit high when you consider the matchup. First of all, Fedde is in a groove and has allowed more than three runs in a start just twice this season. He is going against a Phillies lineup that is averaging just 3.71 runs per game over their last seven games — and that number is elevated thanks to a 13-run outburst against the Giants on the weekend.

Second, even though the Nats are hot right now, they are still scoring just 3.89 runs per game over this nine-game stretch. And the combination of Washington’s strong pitching and struggles scoring has made them a solid Under bet all season and are 11-2 to the Under over the last 13 games. 

The Phillies can give up some runs, but the Nats inconsistencies at the dish have us feeling this one will sneak Under the number.

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)

Nationals vs Phillies betting card

  • Nationals (-115)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 11:09 p.m. ET

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