MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 27, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Mon, Apr 27 • 6:10 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Tampa Bay Rays logo Cleveland Guardians logo o7.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Matz is coming off an awful start while walking nearly four and serving up 1.85 bombs per nine through 21 ⅓ frames. 

Once he and Messick exit, two below-average bullpens take over. The combination of wind, a vulnerable lefty starter, and shaky relief arms makes the game total a number begging to be attacked. 

Spread
Cleveland Guardians logo CLE -1.5 (+155)
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Tampa Bay Rays starter Steven Matz has surrendered five home runs in five starts (all to right-handers) while righty bats are slugging .538 against him.

The Cleveland lineup is stacked with righties, the wind is blowing out to left at 11 mph, and you're getting plus-money on the run line against a Tampa Bay Rays side that’s beating mediocre teams. 

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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Mon, Apr 27 • 6:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Dustin May has been a colossal disaster in the early going for St. Louis, sporting a 5.84 ERA. Meanwhile, Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft’s WHIP sits at an impressive 1.01 heading into Monday. Take Pittsburgh to handle business at home.

Total Hits
Masyn Winn logo
Masyn Winn u0.5 Total Hits (+143)
Projection 0.73
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Masyn Winn is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park has the 7th-most fair ground in the majors — generally bad for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for mound aces.. Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Masyn Winn's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.3-mph average last year has decreased to 85.9-mph.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Mon, Apr 27 • 7:07 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Eloy Jimenez logo
Eloy Jimenez u0.5 Total Hits (+168)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Extreme flyball batters like Eloy Jimenez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.. Eloy Jimenez is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate).
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the majors, the 8th-tallest fences are at Rogers Centre.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.. Kazuma Okamoto is not very athletic, grading out in the 21st percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.76 ft/sec this year.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Oswald Peraza logo
Oswald Peraza u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.82
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oswald Peraza in today's game.. This season, there has been a decline in Oswald Peraza's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.17 ft/sec last year to 27.93 ft/sec currently.. Based on Statcast data, Oswald Peraza is in the 17th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .246.. Oswald Peraza's 87.5-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in the league since the start of last season: 17th percentile.
Total Bases
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Jo Adell is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Guaranteed Rate Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 2nd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.. Because of Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Jo Adell will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kody Clemens logo
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kody Clemens is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in MLB, which tends to lead to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Kody Clemens will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Castillo has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Matt Wallner logo
Matt Wallner o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.53
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 18th-best home run batter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Matt Wallner will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Mon, Apr 27 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Spread
New York Yankees logo NYY -1.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Max Fried has limited Texas hitters to a .152 batting average over his career, and with the Rangers ranking 23rd in OBP, expect the Yankees to cover in Arlington. 

Total Bases
Trent Grisham logo
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Among all parks, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast expects the most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Jack Leiter in today's game.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ San Diego Padres logo SD Mon, Apr 27 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson logo
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Compared to last year, Dansby Swanson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.8% to 20.3% this season.. Dansby Swanson's 12% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. With a .384 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Seiya Suzuki is ranked in the 97th percentile for offensive ability.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Mon, Apr 27 • 10:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Will Smith logo
Will Smith u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. The #8 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 7th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 59°.. Chris Paddack will hold the platoon advantage against Will Smith today.. Will Smith's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 91.2-mph mark last season has dropped off to 89.1-mph.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-121)
Projection 2.25
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Batting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have the upper hand today.
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