Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Mets' Edge on Mound Matters

The Mets and their elite pitching corps host the Braves Tuesday, as Marcus Stroman aims to continue throwing heat. Find out if we have enough faith in his form with our Braves vs. Mets picks.

Posted: Jun 22, 2021 11:29 AM ET Updated: Jun 22, 2021 4:30 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Marcus Stroman MLB New York Mets
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets split a doubleheader yesterday and will play the third contest in this four-game set on Tuesday night. 

Oddsmakers are expecting a tight game between these NL East rivals, with MLB betting lines opening with this game as a pick'em.

Here are our best free Braves vs. Mets picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 22, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Tuesday, June 22, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Braves vs Mets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline opened with New York a modest -114 favorite and flipped to Atlanta an even more modest -110 chalk. The Mets are attracting 62 percent of tickets, while the Braves are drawing 64 percent of money. "We've seen some respected play on the Braves," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 7 to 7.5, with 57 percent of tickets on the Under and 59 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton (6-3, 4.03 ERA): An All-Star in 2018 and 2019, Morton returned to Atlanta (the team that originally drafted him) this year and has been solid. Morton has a 1.21 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 73 2-3 innings across 14 starts.  

The right-hander is coming off his best performance of the year, holding the Cardinals to three hits and no runs through 7 2-3 innings.

Marcus Stroman (6-5, 2.35 ERA): Stroman is stringing together another impressive season, pitching to a 1.04 WHIP and holding opposing batters to an OPS of .592 in 14 starts.

The diminutive right-hander has been especially effective over his last three starts, allowing three earned runs over 20 innings of work. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Marcell Ozuna LF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Mets: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Michael Conforto LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Mets are 20-7 in their last 27 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

After splitting the doubleheader yesterday, the Mets remain atop the NL East with a  37-30 record, four games ahead of the Phillies and five games in front of the Braves. 

Despite struggling to hit the ball, the Mets have been winning thanks in large part to an excellent rotation. While Jacob deGrom gets most of the credit, there are other strong arms on the Mets squad, including today's starter, Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the majors and has an impressive 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 84 1-3 innings this season. The Braves counter with Charlie Morton, who hasn't been as consistent this season, posting just five quality starts in 14 outings. 

The Mets rank just 22nd in the majors with an OPS of .681 but the Braves have a nearly identical OPS of .683 on the road.

Atlanta also hasn't been getting it done against good pitchers, going 8-21 in their last 29 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. With the Mets 20-7 in their last 27 games at home, back them on the moneyline today.

PREDICTION: ML NY Mets (-105)

Over/Under pick

Morton is getting up there in years and seems to have taken a step back over the last couple of seasons, but he's still a reliable starter. The 37-year-old has a WHIP of 1.21 while limiting foes to a batting average of .229 across 14 starts.

Although the Mets have been performing slightly better at the plate over the last month, they still rank just 29th in the majors in scoring with 3.67 runs per game. 

Meanwhile, Atlanta's big bats have struggled in away contests, plating just 4.1 runs per game.

With the Mets going 21-8-2 to the Under in their last 31 games at Citi Field and the Braves going below the total in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record, bet the Under again. 

PREDICTION: Under 7 (+106)

Braves vs Mets betting card

  • ML NY Mets (-105)
  • Under 7 (+106)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 11 a.m. ET

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