The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates broke out the lumber Monday night, uncorking an 18-8 victory for the Cubs in the first of a three-game set.
Chicago starter Justin Steele has struggled mightily across his career against Pittsburgh, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions expect his problems to continue Tuesday.
Read on for August 27’s best free MLB picks.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs (+145 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele gets the nod tonight after watching his Cubs score 18 runs in a Game 1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Steele doesn’t have the sexy record (4-5), but he has pitched well recently; the 29-year-old southpaw has surrendered nine earned runs across his last five starts (26 2-3 innings).
The strikeouts have been there (34), with quality starts in three of his previous five outings.
That may not be the case tonight against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has scored 27 runs across its last five and pounded Steele twice this season, scoring 10 earned runs with five bombs across 9 2-3 frames.
As concerning as the two rough starts against the Pirates were for Steele, it seems to be a pattern; this collection of Pittsburgh sticks has slashed .309/.349/.531/.880 with 25 hits and 14 RBI across 81 career at-bats against the Chicago lefty.
It gets worse for Steele; the Cubs ace is 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 26 earned runs across eight career appearances (seven starts) at PNC Park, and hasn’t defeated the Pirates or even pitched well there since July 2021.
It will be a hot, humid night with the wind blowing out to left at PNC. Steele has not fared well against the Pirates during his career, his struggles this season have come against right-handed lumber, of which he could see as many as eight in the Pittsburgh lineup.
He might get strikeouts, but pitching into the sixth inning will be problematic tonight.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Cody Bellinger 2+ total bases
Connor Joe 2+ total bases
Over 8
The bookmakers don’t allow us to bundle outs props, but I found three nice plays that do correlate with today’s best bet.
Cubs OF Cody Bellinger has been hot. He’s cleared 2+ total bases in six of his past 10 and is slashing .253/.331/.416/.748 with 10 home runs and 33 RBI, with a .273 BABIP against righties.
Pirates 1B Connor Joe is 7-13 lifetime while slashing .538/.600/.769.1.039 with a bomb and three RBI against Steele, with a.300 BABIP vs lefties. He’s cleared 2+ total bases in four of his last 10.
Eight runs are too low for this one. I expect Steele to struggle, and Pirates starter Jared Jones is making his first start in nearly two months. Neither bullpen is stable, and we should see plenty of runs again tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -1.5 (+124) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-140)
- Run line: Chicago (-135) | Pittsburgh (+114)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-102) | Under 9 (-118)
Cubs vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI) and are trading as high as –136 from a –130 opener as of early Tuesday morning.
- The Pirates have only hit the moneyline in 53 of their last 120 games (-15.50 Units / -11% ROI) and are trading as high as +116.
- Over/Under numbers are sitting at 8.0 runs. Over 8 markets are trading as high as –110 while Under 8.0 trade as high as –120.
Cubs vs Pirates trend
Justin Steele has failed to reach 18 outs in five of his previous seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
Cubs vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (4-5, 3.07 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Jared Jones (5-6, 3.56 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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