The Chicago Cubs are slight favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball, and I’m willing to lay the short moneyline price.
This is a lefty-lefty starter matchup, but Matthew Liberatore’s quality-of-contact issues create the cleaner scoring path for Chicago. Jordan Wicks brings enough volatility to keep the total pointed Over.
Here are my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, May 31.
Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cubs moneyline (-105)
I’m backing the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline and would play it to -120.
Matthew Liberatore’s contact profile is a bad fit against Chicago. His 5.00+ xERA, 9.8% barrel rate, and 43.9% hard-hit rate leave too much room for damage, and the Cubs have made a big jump in both metrics over the last week (5%+ increase in both)
Jordan Wicks is volatile enough to keep this uncomfortable, but the St. Louis Cardinals do not bring the same scoring ceiling. In a near coin-flip market, I prefer Chicago’s offense, especially with the Cubs showing signs of their contact quality turning back up.
COVERS INTEL: The Cubs have an 11.4% walk rate, while the Cardinals' rate is just 8.7%. This is particularly significant with two erratic pitchers on the mound.
Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
I’m playing the Over because both lefties carry run-prevention risk, and I have a stronger conviction in the total than in the side. I would play this up to -132 at 8.5 and down to +100 at 9.
We talked about Liberatore above, and he’s a threat to give up a crooked number at any time. Wicks brings similar danger on the other side, allowing a .309 xBA, .493 xSLG, and 47.1% hard-hit rate against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup with the seventh-best expected slugging percentage.
- ML/RL bets: 25-20, +4.64 units
- Over/Under bets: 29-16, +15.29 units
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -115 | Cardinals -105
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 | Cardinals +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cubs have cashed the first five innings (F5) team total Under in 15 of their last 20 games for +9.95 units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Sunday, May 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jordan Wicks (0-1, 16.62 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 4.76 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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