It's not every day the San Francisco Giants (55%) are favored, but that's the case in tonight's series opener vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Oracle Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET on NBC.
My Cardinals vs. Giants predictions have more faith in Logan Webb delivering a quality start than Michael McGreevy, especially with San Francisco's recent form against righties.
That's reflected in my MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
Who will win Cardinals vs Giants today: Giants (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The San Francisco Giants quietly sit second in xSLG and xwOBA against righties over the past month, and now draw Michael McGreevy.
McGreevy hasn’t performed well in night games (4.86 ERA, 5.47 xERA) and enters play in poor form, conceding three or more runs in six of his last eight.
Logan Webb has pitched much cleaner at home (3.39 ERA, 3.59 xERA) this season. He has a good chance of holding up against a St. Louis Cardinals team that ranks 23rd in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers the last 30 days.
Back San Fran to 57%.
COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals own the 10th highest ground ball rate vs. righties the last month, playing into the hands of Webb's heavy groundball profile.
Cardinals vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (49%)
Webb has allowed a hard-hit rate of just 29% on home soil. He has also done a fantastic job of keeping the ball down, inducing grounders at better than a 49% clip.
That profile will make it tough for the Cardinals to generate power in a park that makes it difficult on its own.
McGreevy is excellent at limiting walks and has only allowed 0.88 HR/9 in pitcher-friendly conditions, which he’ll certainly get in San Francisco tonight.
This has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play to 52%.
Cardinals vs Giants home run prediction: Rafael Devers (17%)
There’s hot, and then there’s Rafael Devers. The Giants’ top slugger has homered six times over his past seven games, and now has an enticing matchup against McGreevy.
Devers has five career at-bats vs. McGreevy. He hit the ball hard in four of them, and left the park twice.
As you’d expect given that history, Devers profiles well against McGreevy’s mix. Fastballs and cutters make up two of his three most-used pitches, and Devers has posted ISOs of .370 and .475 against those two.
Don’t be surprised if the heater lasts another day.
- ML/RL bets: 103-91, -9.0 units
- Over/Under bets: 99-89-6, -2.32 units
Cardinals vs Giants market trends
Here's how the trading volume is coming in on tonight's Cardinals vs. Giants matchup at Polymarket, with sharp traders leaning rather heavily to the visitors.
Cardinals vs Giants weather
Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-60s. Even with the wind blowing out, it should play in favor of the pitchers.
Cardinals vs Giants odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals 46% | Giants 55%
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (64%) | Giants -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52%) | Under 7.5 (49%)
Cardinals vs Giants trend
San Francisco has hit the Over in only 19 of its last 45 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants.
How to watch Cardinals vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (6-9, 3.97 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Logan Webb (8-8, 4.21 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Giants latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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