The Milwaukee Brewers (60%) get on base better than anybody against right-handed pitching, and they should have plenty of opportunities to do so facing Rhett Lowder.
I expect Milwaukee to put up a big number tonight, and my Brewers vs. Reds prediction and MLB picks reflect that.
Who will win Brewers vs Reds today: Milwaukee Brewers (61%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Rhett Lowder is very hittable, which becomes especially evident when he goes up against a quality offense.
He has posted a 7.22 ERA over 12 starts against teams ranking Top-10 in OBP vs. right-handed pitching. Unfortunately for Lowder, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the league in that category.
They are likely to string together hits in bulk, and Lowder’s 15th percentile barrel rate will also elevate their ability to generate power.
Shane Drohan has managed a 2.93 ERA against Bottom-10 opponents in OBP, and the Cincinnati Reds sit 29th.
Play to 64%.
COVERS INTEL: Lowder ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA, making him unlikely to hold up against an elite Brewers offense.
Brewers vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (52%)
The Brewers are in a great spot to score early and often, making the Over an attractive buy.
Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Reds do possess real power. Aided by playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, only five teams have gone deep more times at home this season.
Play to 53%.
Brewers vs Reds home run prediction: Jake Bauers (23%)
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Isolating matchups against starters ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in xSLG and FB% against left-handed bats, Bauers has homered in seven of 12 games.
- ML/RL bets: 98-89, -11.36 units
- Over/Under bets: 94-87-6, -5.27 units
Brewers vs Reds weather
Temperatures are expected to comfortably sit in the 90s with winds blowing out. Very favorable hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark.
Brewers vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 60% | Reds 41%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (48%) | Reds +1.5 (53%)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51%) | Under 9.5 (50%)
Brewers vs Reds trend
Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.0 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Reds.
How to watch Brewers vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, Reds.TV |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Shane Drohan (7-5, 3.75 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Rhett Lowder (6-8, 5.14 ERA) |
Brewers vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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