Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is among the leaders in hits and batting average this season. I’m expecting him to continue producing for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight with sinker-baller Nick Martinez on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions and MLB Picks on Monday, May 4.
Blue Jays vs Rays predictions
Blue Jays vs Rays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. broke out of his mini-slump with a two-hit game in yesterday afternoon's series finale vs. the Twins.
With a plus-matchup for him on the mound, I'm backing the Toronto Blue Jays slugger to go Over his 1.5-bases total for tonight’s game.
The Tampa Bay Rays are sending Nick Martinez to the bump. He's had a great season with a 1.70 ERA, but his 3.85 xERA and an xBA that ranks in the 42nd percentile suggest regression looms for the veteran right-hander.
That regression could start tonight, as Martinez’s most utilized pitch is the sinker, which is a pitch the Jays hit fairly well, posting a .304 team average against it.
Leading the charge is Vladdy, who owns a .438 average and a .469 slug-rate against sinkers, hence why in expecting a productive night for the Jays slugger.
COVERS INTEL: Martinez has a whiff rate in the ninth percentile and a K% in the 17th, neither of which instills confidence against Vlad.
Blue Jays vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
I’ll stick with the "fade Martinez" theme in my SGP by adding Kazuma Okamoto and Jesus Sanchez to each pick up hits.
Okamoto's the hottest hitter in the Jays' lineup with six hits in his last three games, four of which have been home runs. I’ll bet on him to get at least 1+ hit tonight.
Meanwhile, Sanchez does all of his damage against right-handers, and Martinez's inability to generate whiffs won't help him against sluggers who already rarely succumb to the strikeout.
Blue Jays vs Rays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
- Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
Blue Jays vs Rays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+315)
I’m only betting a half unit on this one.
Martinez doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact and hasn’t allowed a home run in three straight.
However, it’d be foolish to go in any other direction than Okamoto.
He’s been hammering the baseball lately with four homers in his last three games. He also owns a .471 xSLG rate against the sinker, with a 57% hard-hit rate.
- Best bets: 13-20, -3.5 units
- SGPs: 6-27, -2.5 units
- HR picks: 8-25, +11.15 units
Blue Jays vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +105 | Rays -125
- Run line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-180) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Rays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Monday, May 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet1, Rays.TV |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (2-1, 1.70 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Rays latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Rays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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