The current collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association expires on Dec. 1, 2026.
While no risk looms for the rest of the 2026 season, the same cannot be said for 2027, and the question on everyone's mind is: Will there be an MLB lockout?
MLB odds of a new CBA being agreed upon before the expiration are low (5% probability at Kalshi), which will certainly put some, most, or all of the 2027 season in jeopardy. I analyze the situation below.
- Key takeaways:
- A lockout seems inevitable
- Owners want a salary cap; the union doesn't
- When will baseball begin in 2027?
Will a new CBA be agreed upon before Dec. 2, 2026?
Prediction: No (N/A at Kalshi)
The current CBA
The current collective bargaining agreement will expire at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 1. The CBA was a five-year pact between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association.
It was finalized in May, 2023, after the sides reached a moratorium of understanding on the eventual deal that ended a 99-day lockout. No games were ultimately lost during those negotiations.
The last time regular-season games were cancelled due to a work stoppage — so, not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season — was 1994, when a players' strike canceled the latter portion of the season, the playoffs, and the World Series.
What's the hold-up?
Major League Baseball wants a salary cap. The MLBPA doesn't. Whatever other minutiae factor into the debate, this is ultimately the biggest sticking point that will almost certainly mean a new collective bargaining agreement will not be in place before Dec. 2, 2026.
Neither side wants to give an inch in this war. Both sides are keeping their cards close to their chest, too. No owners answered ESPN's Jeff Passan's call to answer questions about the salary cap for a recent episode of his podcast, "Sources Tell with Jeff Passan."
Last week, I asked every MLB team to speak with its owner on camera. They’re less than three months from shutting down the sport via a lockout, and I wanted to hear their explanation for why they think a salary cap is worth the fallout that's bound to come. None agreed to talk. pic.twitter.com/dSKoE8Y7ms
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 15, 2026
It's fairly straightforward. Neither the owners nor the players will want to cede ground or leverage ahead of time. Neither side wants to be publicly perceived as weak, unaligned, or wishy-washy. There is no incentive to accept an early deal, which will almost definitely be lined with concessions. The 5% chance of a new CBA ahead of the deadline seems contextually high.
What owners want
Per an extensive article by The Athletic's Evan Drellich (which I highly recommend poring over), MLB's valuation is increasing but not by as much as team owners want, and they view a salary cap as a means to replicate growth seen in the NFL and NBA.
The league proposed a salary cap/floor system in July, where the cap would be set at $245.3 million and the floor would be $171.2 million. Half the league currently falls below the proposed floor, according to Spotrac, while six teams exceed the cap.
If the issue is competitive balance, as MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has referenced, how do the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Cleveland Guardians factor in? All three are below the floor threshold and are not only earmarked for the postseason, but could each win their respective divisions in the process. And even if it hasn't resulted in a World Series title, all three have been consistently competitive throughout the last decade or longer.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets and their No. 2 payroll will miss the playoffs entirely. All told, seven different teams have won the World Series in the last decade, only two have won more than once, and 12 out of 30 teams have reached the Fall Classic.
The union isn't buying a cap
Bruce Meyer, the deputy director of the players' union, doesn't see a link between a salary cap and competitive balance.
"Salary caps in the other sports have not led to competitive balance," Meyer told The Athletic. "In fact — baseball, which is the only one of the four major sports that does not have a salary cap — actually has better competitive balance than the other sports. A salary cap punishes competition, punishes clubs that want to go out and acquire the best players and put the most exciting product on the field for the fans. It gives owners who prefer not to compete an all-purpose excuse not to do so."
Too many concessions will need to be made on either side, and everyone seems to know that a new CBA will not be ratified ahead of the deadline. I am not going to buck that trend, either, but I also wouldn't invest in this market at the going rate.
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When will the 2027 MLB season begin?
Prediction: Before April 30, 2027 (67% at Kalshi)
The first game of the 2027 MLB season is scheduled for Wednesday, March 24, with one yet-to-be-determined matchup streaming on Netflix. A traditional Opening Day slate is set to follow on Thursday, March 25.
Assuming the Dec. 2 deadline comes and goes without a new CBA, this schedule is immediately put in jeopardy, and the market isn't confident a resolution will come before the currently scheduled Opening Day.
Kalshi gives a 40% probability that games will be played before March 25, 2027, implying that some games will be missed.
For now, at least, the expectation is that the looming work stoppage won't wipe out the entire season, and it's given a 54% chance to start before April 1 and a 67% chance to begin ahead of April 30.
Baseball happens before May
Ultimately, I expect a new CBA to be agreed upon before too much of the season is lost. No one wants 1994 all over again. That said, both sides are willing to play hardball (pun 100% intended) to prove a point and to show solidarity.
A salary cap will probably be agreed upon, reluctantly, but players will need to get some form of compensation in return, likely in the form of revenue sharing and/or tweaks to contract structure (ban deferred payments, abolish the qualifying offer, reduce service time requirements to hit free agency) to make that more palatable.
If either side thinks it can get what it wants without some kind of compromise, we might be waiting a while for Opening Day.
Popular MLB futures markets
- MLB World Series odds
- MLB Cy Young odds
- MLB Rookie of the Year odds
- MLB playoff odds
- MLB HR title odds
How many MLB games in 2027?
Prediction: More than 2,425 — No (53% at Kalshi)
Assuming we miss the scheduled Opening Day, I'd rather take the "no" on more than 2,425 games being played at 53% than the "yes" on more than 1,930 at 66%.
A full season has 2,430 games. So, the Under 2,425 requires us to lose only the real Opening Day and nothing more. If every team misses one game, then this prediction hits.
Obviously, if everyone suddenly comes together to reach an agreement ahead of time, I will be pleasantly surprised as a baseball fan and grumpily so as a trader.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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New MLB CBA FAQ
The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1, 2026.
The first MLB game in 2027 is currently scheduled for Wednesday, March 24, with a 14-game Opening Day slate on Thursday, March 25. This is, of course, barring a potential work stoppage.
Owners enacted a lockout prior to the 2022 MLB season that delayed Opening Day until April 7. However, no regular-season games were ultimately axed.
Other than the COVID-19 pandemic-shortened 2020 season where teams played 60 games apiece, the last time games were lost for a work stoppage was the 1994 players strike that canceled 938 games and the postseason.
