The active collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association expires on Dec. 1, 2026.
With the World Series nearing completion, the 2027 regular season appears to be in jeopardy. The question soon to be on every baseball mind is: will there be an MLB lockout?
MLB odds of a new CBA being agreed upon before the expiration are low (7.5% probability at Kalshi), which will certainly put some, most, or all of the 2027 season in jeopardy. I analyze the situation below.
- Key takeaways:
- A lockout feels inevitable
- Owners want a salary cap; the union doesn't
- When will baseball begin in 2027?
Will a new CBA be agreed upon before Dec. 2, 2026?
Prediction: No (92% at Kalshi)
The current CBA
The current collective bargaining agreement, a five-year pact between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association, will expire at 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 1.
It was agreed to in May 2022 (ultimately finalized in May 2023) after the sides reached a memorandum of understanding on the eventual deal that ended a 99-day lockout. No games were ultimately lost during those negotiations.
The last time regular-season games were cancelled because of a work stoppage — excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season — was 1994, when a players' strike canceled the remainder of the regular season, the playoffs, and the World Series.
What's the hold-up?
Major League Baseball wants a salary cap. The MLBPA doesn't. Whatever other details factor into the debate, this is ultimately the biggest sticking point and will almost certainly prevent a new collective bargaining agreement from being in place before Dec. 2, 2026.
Neither side wants to give an inch, keeping its cards close to its chest. No owners responded to ESPN's Jeff Passan when he sought comment about the salary cap for a recent episode of his podcast, "Sources Tell with Jeff Passan."
Passan has since reiterated this point, adding that the outcome of the World Series will not affect the league's stance one way or the other.
It's fairly straightforward. Neither the owners nor the players will want to cede ground or leverage prematurely. Neither side wants to be publicly perceived as weak, unaligned, or wishy-washy. There's little incentive to accept an early deal, which will almost definitely be lined with concessions. The 4% chance of a new CBA being reached before the deadline seems contextually high.
What owners want
According to an extensive article by The Athletic's Evan Drellich, which I highly recommend, MLB's franchise valuations are increasing, but not by as much as team owners would like. They view a salary cap as a way to replicate growth seen in the NFL and NBA.
The league proposed a salary cap-and-floor system in July, with the cap set at $245.3 million and the floor at $171.2 million. According to Spotrac, roughly half the league's teams currently fall below the proposed floor, while six exceed the proposed cap.
If the issue is competitive balance, as MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has argued, how do the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Cleveland Guardians factor in? All three are below the floor threshold and not only reached the postseason, but are among the final four teams vying for the World Series. And even if a World Series title remains elusive, all three have been consistently competitive over the last decade or longer.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets, with the second-highest payroll, missed the playoffs entirely. All told, seven different teams have won the World Series in the past decade, only two have won more than once, and 13 out of 30 teams have reached the Fall Classic.
Drellich has also reported that the owners are proposing a shortened 154-game regular season (beginning in 2029), alongside an expansion of the Division Series from a best-of-five to a best-of-seven format.
The union isn't buying a cap
Bruce Meyer, the deputy director of the players' union, doesn't see a link between a salary cap and competitive balance.
"Salary caps in the other sports have not led to competitive balance," Meyer told The Athletic. "In fact — baseball, which is the only one of the four major sports that does not have a salary cap — actually has better competitive balance than the other sports. A salary cap punishes competition, punishes clubs that want to go out and acquire the best players and put the most exciting product on the field for the fans. It gives owners who prefer not to compete an all-purpose excuse not to do so."
Too many concessions will need to be made on both sides, and everyone seems to know that a new CBA will not be ratified before the deadline. I'm not going to buck that trend, either, but I also wouldn't invest in this market at the going rate.
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When will the 2027 MLB season begin?
Prediction: Before April 30, 2027 (47% at Kalshi)
The first game of the 2027 MLB season is scheduled for Wednesday, March 24, with a yet-to-be-determined matchup streaming on Netflix. A traditional Opening Day slate is scheduled to follow on Thursday, March 25.
Assuming the Dec. 2 deadline passes without a new CBA, this schedule will immediately be in jeopardy, and the market isn't confident a resolution will come before the currently scheduled Opening Day.
When I first looked at the lockout odds, the probability of the season starting before April 30, 2027, was listed at 67%. That may have been optimistic, with the probability now at 47%.
However, I remain hopeful that we'll see real baseball before May, even if the league is sending memos to teams about how to operate in the event of a likely lockout.
Baseball happens before May
Ultimately, I expect a new CBA to be agreed upon before too much of the season is lost. No one wants 1994 all over again. That said, both sides are willing to play hardball (pun 100% intended) to prove a point and demonstrate solidarity.
A salary cap will probably be agreed upon, albeit reluctantly, but players will need to receive something in return, likely in the form of revenue-sharing changes or adjustments to contract structure. Possibilities include banning deferred payments, abolishing the qualifying offer, or reducing service-time requirements to hit free agency.
One of the primary arguments in favor of a salary cap is that it would, in theory, restore competitive balance. However, with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the ropes and the other remaining teams coming from mid- or small-market cities, the union could have some additional leverage. Maybe that only delays things further if the owners dig their heels in, but I think sanity will prevail in the end.
If either side thinks it can get what it wants without compromising, we might be waiting a while for Opening Day.
Popular MLB futures markets
- MLB World Series odds
- MLB Cy Young odds
- MLB Rookie of the Year odds
- MLB playoff odds
- MLB HR title odds
How many MLB games in 2027?
Prediction: More than 1,930 — Yes (63% at Kalshi)
Assuming Opening Day is delayed, I'd rather take the "No" on more than 2,425 games if the probability remained below 65%. However, with that option now at 70%, I'll grab the Over on 1,930 games, as I'm optimistic about the season starting relatively early.
A full 162-game season for all 30 teams comprises 2,430 games. Therefore, the "No" position on more than 2,425 games wins if five or more games are lost. If every team misses one game, then this prediction wins.
Obviously, if everyone suddenly comes together and reaches an agreement ahead of time, I'll be pleasantly surprised as a baseball fan and grumpy about it as a trader.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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New MLB CBA FAQ
The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1, 2026.
The first MLB game in 2027 is currently scheduled for Wednesday, March 24, with a 14-game Opening Day slate on Thursday, March 25. This is, of course, barring a potential work stoppage.
Owners enacted a lockout prior to the 2022 MLB season that delayed Opening Day until April 7. However, no regular-season games were ultimately axed.
Other than the COVID-19 pandemic-shortened 2020 season where teams played 60 games apiece, the last time games were lost for a work stoppage was the 1994 players strike that canceled 938 games and the postseason.
