Today’s pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat features two players who’ve struggled early in the season.
I’m expecting those struggles to continue and we’ll see a lot of offense in this one.
Read on to see why the Over is the play in my free MLB picks and Blue Jays vs. Brewers predictions for Thursday, April 16.
Blue Jays vs Brewers predictions
Blue Jays vs Brewers best bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
We’ve seen some great pitching matchups this series, but today may not be one of them.
I’m anticipating a lot of offense in this one with Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat on the mound this afternoon.
Both starters have an ERA north of 10. Corbin has just one start, but gave up four runs in four innings, meanwhile Sproat’s given up 12 runs in just three starts this season
Additionally, we’ve seen the Over hit in four of the last five Toronto Blue Jays games with them batting .282 with 49 hits over that stretch, while the Milwaukee Brewers rank 6th averaging 5.2 runs per game this season.
COVERS INTEL: Brandon Sproat has a 10.45 ERA, and ranks in the fifth percentile with an 8.10 xERA. 
Blue Jays vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
The Blue Jays' bats seem to be coming around, sporting a .282 average over their last five games, averaging 9.8 hits per game.
Sproat has struggled mightily this season, ranking in just the 14th percentile in expected batting average while allowing 4.6 hits per game and Daulton Varsho is well-positioned to capitalize.
Varsho comes in riding a six-game hitting streak, recording a hit in eight of his last nine games. Batting in the two-hole again, he’s in a prime spot to give Sproat serious trouble on the mound.
I’ll continue by fading the Brewers starter and take Sproat to go Over 1.5 walks. He’s walked at least three batters in each of his three starts this year, and takes on a Jays team who has an elite eye at the plate.
Blue Jays vs Brewers SGP
- Over 8.5
- Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
- Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 walks
Blue Jays vs Brewers home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+475)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t seen the ball fly the way he did last fall, but we’re starting to see the power shine through with multiple XBH over the last week of games.
Sproat gives up a lot of hard contact, too, ranking in the 14th percentile in hard hit rate this season with six XBH allowed.
Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has elite numbers against the sinker ball with a .467 batting average and last season had a .532 slug-rate against the pitch, which is Sproat’s go-to pitch with 37% usage.
- Best bets: 5-11, -3.25 units
- SGPs: 2-14, -6.50 units
- HR picks: 33-13, -0.10
Blue Jays vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -102 | Milwaukee -116
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+168) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Brewers trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Thursday, April 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, SN1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Patrick Corbin (0-0, 9.00 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Brandon Sproat (0-1, 10.45 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Brewers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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