The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners square off in Game 2 of their four-game set in the Pacific Northwest tonight.
My Astros vs. Mariners predictions like this as a stabilizing opportunity for struggling Houston starter Hunter Brown as Seattle's offense can charitably be described as "quite poor."
Our MLB picks for Tuesday, May 28, dig deeper into this AL West showdown.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Hunter Brown Over 15.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Hunter Brown looked like a budding star in the Houston Astros rotation. While he perhaps couldn't have been expected to round into form as a frontline starter, there's no shame in being a mid-rotation hurler. However, things have not gone according to plan in 2024, with Brown boasting a 1-5 record with an ugly 7.06 ERA in 43 1/3 innings across 10 outings (nine starts).
Part of his struggles have been due to an inflated walk rate (11.9%), which is among the highest in baseball, and the second-highest home runs allowed per nine innings among all pitchers with at least 40 innings under their belts this season.
Fortunately for the right-hander, he gets what might be a bit of a respite tonight against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have scored the second-fewest runs in the American League and have yet to find consistency at the plate. They have a middle-of-the-pack walk rate, too, so unless Brown's control goes completely off the rails, this likely won't be what ends his day early.
Brown is fully stretched out and he's got a fairly long leash, topping 90 pitches in four of his last five outings. The one where he didn't was a sharp relief appearance where he went five innings of one-run ball with no walks against the Tigers.
Additionally, while he hasn't suddenly turned into an ace, he's found better results in May, posting a 3.98 ERA and allowing two or fewer earned runs in three of his four appearances.
Colder weather also typically affects offense more than pitching, and T-Mobile Park is expected to go below 57 degrees tonight, the most frigid forecast on the slate.
The BAT projects him to record 16.6 outs, so getting him to pitch into the sixth inning at plus money is a great value proposition. If you want to play it a little more conservatively, you can find alternate lines of Over 14.5 outs (so, five innings) juiced to around -155.
Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Hunter Brown Over 15.5 outs
Hunter Brown Under 2.5 earned runs
Under 7.5
Seattle's offensive woes have been well-documented, as only the Chicago White Sox have scored fewer runs among AL teams. This is a correlated play since Brown would likely be pitching well enough to reach the sixth, which means not a lot of runs.
Luis Castillo toes the rubber for the Mariners. The righty ace has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight outings and typically pitches deep into his starts, completing six innings or more in seven of those eight games. Castillo offers a top-shelf handcuff when backing Brown, as we don't expect either starter to get blown up tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-190) | Seattle -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Houston +115 | Seattle -135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners opened as -135 moneyline favorites, which is roughly where they remain, though -127 is the best line available.
- Following Monday's win, Seattle is 3-1 vs. Houston in 2024.
- The total opened at 7.5, slightly juiced to the Under, which has gained more traction with the vig sitting between the opening line of -115 and -125.
- Both teams have played to the Under this season, with the Astros at 21-30 O/U and the Mariners at 21-31.
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Astros vs Mariners trend
The Houston Astros have hit the game total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, ROOT Sports Northwest |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (1-5, 7.06 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.31 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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