Carolina @ Arizona Picks & Props

Though Carolina landed a 36-30 OT victory when these squads collided last December, the hosts look like a different animal in Year 3 under Jonathan Gannon, especially with Marvin Harrison Jr. off to a hot start. The Cardinals went 4-1 ATS at home down the stretch last season, and they’ve covered the 2H spread in eight of their last nine games at State Farm Stadium. 

Hubbard had 1,195 rushing yards on 250 carries last season and he has rushed for more than 70 yards in eight of his last 14 contests. Most of the games where he went below that number, Carolina was playing with a negative game script due to falling behind early. The Panthers are road dogs against the Cardinals this week, but I'm expecting a competitive clash which should result in a decent workload for Hubbard. In Hubbard's final game last season he gashed Arizona for 152 yards on 25 carries. The Cards surrendered 109 rushing yards on 22 carries against the Saints in Week 1 and they rank 29th in the league in run defense grade per PFF.

This might not be the most-watched game on the 4pm slate, but an indoor matchup for the Panthers makes Chuba Hubbard a strong plus-money TD target. Bryce Young and the offense struggled in Week 1, but this Arizona defense—with several new starters—is far from elite. Hubbard handled all three red-zone carries on Carolina’s lone trip inside the 20 and dominated the backfield with 21 of 27 RB opportunities. He also stayed on the field late in a lopsided 26-10 loss. He totaled 89 yards and remains game-script proof thanks to his passing-down role. Rico Dowdle is the No. 2, but he scored just twice last year on 235 carries and saw only 25 red-zone attempts. Dave Canales clearly trusts Hubbard, who has 20-carry upside every week. I’ll take him at -115 or better in most spots—and love the setup this week indoors vs. Arizona.

The Panthers surrendered a league-high 11 touchdowns to tight ends last season, and Trey McBride should torch them on Sunday. Last season, McBride trailed only Brock Bowers in TE targets, and Kyler Murray looked his way a team-high nine times last week against New Orleans. Arizona’s offense will break out against Carolina, and I expect McBride to be at the forefront of the red-zone production.

McBride drew nine targets for six catches, including one catch-and-run in the red zone that almost got in. Arizona takes on a Carolina defense which gave up a league-high in TDs to tight ends last year and allowed the Jags to hit their TE for a TD last Sunday. McBride was the third most targeted tight end in the red zone last season but only had two TDs. The Panthers are the perfect pinata to pop.

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. This week, Bryce Young is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.9.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Arizona offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. With an exceptional 68.5% Adjusted Completion% (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Kyler Murray stands as one of the best precision passers in the league.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Panthers defense has been gouged for a monstrous 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Panthers defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a massive 8.32 yards.

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. This week, Bryce Young is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.9. . Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

The Panthers have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.3 plays per game.. The Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Trey McBride has run a route on 92.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.. This week, Trey McBride is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs with 9.1 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Trey McBride grades out in the towering 98th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 55.0 per game.. The Arizona offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Panthers have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.3 plays per game.. When talking about air yards, Chuba Hubbard ranks in the lowly 5th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling just -5.0 per game.. With a bad 3.8 adjusted yards per target (2nd percentile) since the start of last season, Chuba Hubbard ranks as one of the weakest RB receiving threats in the league.. With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) since the start of last season, Chuba Hubbard ranks among the top RB receiving threats in the league in the open field.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, James Conner is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.. With a high 11.4% Target Rate (87th percentile) since the start of last season, James Conner has been among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.. The Arizona offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. James Conner checks in as one of the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 24.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Arizona offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the poor Panthers pass defense has yielded a whopping 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-highest rate in the league.

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.6%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.6%).