Jacksonville @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Joe Burrow is going to bounce back nicely against a Jacksonville secondary that, while improved, isn’t improved enough to deal with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. And if the Jaguars allow receivers to run free as they did last week, Burrow will make them pay.

 

I’m a proud square when it comes to betting TDs—give me elite snap-share backs with red-zone work at good prices, and I’m in. This week, that’s Chase Brown (-105) and Travis Etienne (+140). With Tank Bigsby out of the picture, Etienne is locked into a heavy workload. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten got two red-zone carries in Week 1, but Etienne handled 10 of 14 RB touches and posted a 71% first-half snap share. He racked up 156 total yards on 19 touches (16 carries, 3 targets) and should be heavily involved again vs. Cincinnati. At +140, you’re getting a lead back with 20-touch upside in a game where the Jags could easily score 3+ TDs. That’s strong value.

Burrow was shell shocked by the Browns' pass rush last week, with his offensive line allowing three sacks and rating 28^th in pass block win rate. He ran twice but only got two yards. This week, he faces a Jags defense that also did a good job winning the neutral zone in Week 1. This sketchy Cincy offensive line just lost free agent add Lucas Patrick and that could have Burrow running for his life and turning to his legs to keep the chains moving. Joe can move when he has to. Projections all over 10 yards with some as high as 16 gains on a ground.

Both of these teams came into the season expected to have among the worst defenses in the NFL. However, those stop units benefitted from facing ugly offenses in Week 1. That won't be the case in Week 2. The Bengals attack is poised to bounce back from a rare poor performance by Pro Bowl QB Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, the Jags rushed for 200 yards last week and finished with 26 points despite a conservative gameplan in the second half. Expect new head coach Liam Coen to unleash Trevor Lawrence against a shaky Bengals D. 

Cincinnati should put up points, but I'm not convince Jacksonville will. The Bengals held the Browns out of the endzone and limited them to just 16 points. The Jaguars needed a short field and one of the longest rushing plays in the NFL's first weekend to get just two touchdowns against a putrid Carolina defense. I'm leaning Under here but I'd like another point or two to play with, so we'll see how the line moves later this week.

The Jaguars protected Trevor Lawrence, only turned the ball over once, and ran for 200 yards. And managed just two touchdowns. The Bengals won't let Lawrence be that comfortable, and field goals won't get the job done against a Cincinnati team that will put up points. Joe Burrow and his speedy receivers will expose the Jacksonville secondary in ways the Panthers simply couldn't and will show that the Jaguars still have a ways to go. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars offer a much softer defensive opponent than the rival Browns, and Cincinnati is on its own turf for this Week 2 matchup. Jacksonville put up 26 points in a win over the Carolina Panthers, but left a lot of points on the table. The Jags finished 2-for-5 inside the red zone and posted 378 yards of offense. The Bengals defense got blasted for 22 first downs and 327 yards from Cleveland and could have given up more if Joe Flacco’s receivers hadn’t bobbled balls into the hands of the defenders. But first week jitters are gone, and I expect fireworks in this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Books are dealing the total at 49.5, but some have crept up to 50.5 Over/Under. Grab the Over on the lowest total you can find.

The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game.. Trevor Lawrence profiles as one of the least on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a 60.8% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 11th percentile.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.. In this contest, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the projection model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.0. . The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.2 per game) since the start of last season.. Joe Burrow has been one of the best passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 288.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

The projections expect the Jaguars to run the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game.. Cincinnati's defense profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season as it relates to producing interceptions, accumulating 0.83 per game.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season.. Noah Fant's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a mere 5.15 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.95 rate last year.. Noah Fant comes in as one of the bottom tight ends in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense to skew 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.. This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Jaguars, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bengals defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (34.0 per game) since the start of last season.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.2 per game) since the start of last season.. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.1 targets.. When talking about air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 97th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season.. With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) since the start of last season, Ja'Marr Chase has been among the leading WRs in the game in the league in the open field.. The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game.. Since the start of last season, the stout Bengals defense has allowed a paltry 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. The opposing side have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (134 per game) versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.