Cleveland @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Cleveland’s offense, led by Joe Flacco, can’t hold a candle to Buffalo. The Ravens stopped the Bills in their tracks on the ground only to see the reigning MVP go crazy through the air, but it should bounce back in a huge way against a weak offense which will go from a friendly matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals to a brutal one against this Baltimore side.

The Browns ran 2-TE sets at the second-highest rate in Week 1, and it was No. 2 tight end Harold Fannin—not David Njoku—who benefited most. Fannin played 72% of snaps and ran a route on 64% of dropbacks, compared to Njoku’s 84% snap share and 77% route rate. Still, Fannin led the team with nine targets and finished second in receiving yards with 63. Cedric Tillman was the only pass-catcher to score against Cincinnati, but there were only two red-zone targets—one to Tillman and one to Fannin. I’d play a Fannin TD down to +350 based on usage and Cleveland’s heavy 12 personnel. If you’re hunting a deep longshot, Raheim Sanders at +1700 is interesting—he scored last week and handled two of the four carries inside the 5-yard line. Joe Flacco isn’t stealing those goal-line plunges.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Browns being a heavy -12.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.. Jerry Jeudy rates as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 5.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Browns being a heavy -12.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.. With an outstanding rate of 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game (83rd percentile), Joe Flacco places as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.. Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 240.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.. With a stellar 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Lamar Jackson has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.. With an exceptional 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Lamar Jackson has been as one of the most efficient passers in the league.

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.. With an elite 57.8% snap rate (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry stands among the RBs with the most usage in the league.. With an outstanding 9.8 adjusted yards per target (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry has been as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in the NFL.. The Browns pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 8.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Browns being a heavy -12.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The most plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns since the start of last season (a colossal 62.3 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.. The model projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 42.0 per game.. Mark Andrews places in the 87th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 35.4 mark since the start of last season.

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.. In this game, Zay Flowers is projected by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.9 targets.. Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Zay Flowers has posted a whopping 76.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among WRs.

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The most plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns since the start of last season (a colossal 62.3 per game on average).

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being an enormous 12.5-point favorite this week.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.8% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 9.2 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Lamar Jackson has averaged 54.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to quarterbacks (98th percentile).

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being an enormous 12.5-point favorite this week.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.8% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Derrick Henry to total 21.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With an outstanding rate of 120.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (100th percentile), Derrick Henry ranks as one of the top pure rushers in football since the start of last season.