Chicago @ Detroit Picks & Props

The Lions paced the NFL in points per home game and have covered the number in 10 straight games following a loss.

It’s an indoor game and the return of Ben Johnson to Detroit, and I’m happy to back the Chicago offense here—especially with former Lion D’Andre Swift at +145 to score a touchdown, which is my favorite angle. Swift played 81% of the snaps in Week 1 and handled Chicago’s only red-zone carry. He was highly involved despite playing on a rough surface last week, and the fast track indoors at Ford Field should only help his explosiveness. The Lions struggled against the run in Week 1, ranking 26th in success rate and 22nd in EPA per rush. If Swift sees similar usage, he has a great shot to find the end zone. I'd buy this to +115/+120.

This is a buy-low spot for Gibbs who was limited to 19 yards on nine carries in a lopsided loss to the Packers last week. Gibbs was fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,412) last year and has rushed for 68+ yards in 13 of his last 18 games. That includes a pair of clashes against Chicago where he rushed for 109 and 87 yards. The Bears struggled against the run in Week 1, surrendering 120 yards on 26 carries. They are 22nd in the league in run defense grade per PFF, while ranking 28th in tackling grade. They could also be missing a pair of key defenders with DT Grady Jarrett sidelined in practice and LB T.J. Edwards limited after sitting out MNF with a groin injury. 

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Lions offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.40 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.. Since the start of last season, the stout Bears defense has surrendered a paltry 64.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. Jared Goff profiles as one of the leading passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 265.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.. Jared Goff's 82.4% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates an impressive gain in his passing accuracy over last season's 72.0% mark.. Jared Goff ranks as one of the best per-play QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 8.26 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 94th percentile.. The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.37 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the league.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are projected by the model to run only 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).. The Lions safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are projected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.. The Lions have intercepted 0.87 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking as the 6th-best defense in the league by this stat.. The Lions safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Bears have a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).. The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.0 plays per game.. The Detroit Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. Sam LaPorta has run a route on 80.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to notch 6.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Sam LaPorta has totaled a massive 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Sam LaPorta grades out as one of the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 47.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

The Bears have a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).. The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.0 plays per game.. The Detroit Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.4 targets.. With a sizeable 26.2% Target Rate (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown places among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.. With a remarkable 77.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.

The predictive model expects the Lions offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.40 seconds per snap.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Chicago's LB corps has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. The predictive model expects the Lions as the 10th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (140 per game) against the Bears defense since the start of last season.