Seattle @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

The Seahawks were poor last week, scoring just one touchdown, and Gainwell is the value play to open the scoring here with odds of nearly double Warren, despite seeing a very similar workload last week.

We know that there’s talent on this Steelers defense and we should see them improve off last week. The Seahawks had just one touchdown in Week 1, and most worrying was that Sam Darnold played very poorly, completing just 16 of 23 passing attempts while finishing with 150 yards.

The Jets vs. Steelers game last week was surprisingly fun, and I’m betting on Pittsburgh’s offense to show up again in Week 2. My target: Jonnu Smith to score at +380 on DraftKings. Smith impressed in his Steelers debut, stepping in as the TE1 with a 66% snap share and a 53% route rate. Only DK Metcalf saw more targets in the game—Smith finished with five catches and a touchdown. On six red-zone plays, Pittsburgh ran it four times and passed twice—one to Calvin Austin, the other to Smith for the score. Seattle had trouble with George Kittle last week before he exited early. He still managed four catches and a touchdown, and the 49ers ended up with two TE scores against the Seahawks. It's a 5-star play to +350.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may decline.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may decline.. Sam Darnold comes in as one of the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 249.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.. With a remarkable 7.90 adjusted yards-per-target (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Sam Darnold ranks among the most effective QBs in the league.. The Steelers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.23 seconds per play) will chug along at the 15th-worst pace among all games this week.. The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).. The Pittsburgh Steelers have intercepted 0.94 balls per game since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best defense in the NFL by this standard.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may decline.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may decline.. In this week's game, Kenneth Walker III is expected by the model to finish in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.3 targets.. With an excellent 27.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Kenneth Walker III has been as one of the leading pass-catching running backs in the NFL.. The Steelers defense has given up the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (35.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.

The Seattle Seahawks have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).. The Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Steelers are projected by the projections to run just 63.0 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.. With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren rates among the best RBs in the pass game in the league in space.. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (80.2%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (80.2%).

The Seattle Seahawks have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.8% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.0 per game on average).. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to accrue 13.0 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game in this game (48.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.0% in games he has played).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Seattle's DT corps has been very bad since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league. in the league.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may decline.. Since the start of last season, the poor Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has allowed a whopping 4.21 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 26th-largest rate in football.