Minnesota @ Chicago Picks & Props

While it is a nice story that Adam Thielen is back with the Vikings, he is 35 years old and is coming off a season where he only had 48 catches for 615 yards on a team with very little wide receiver depth.

I think the Bears will move the ball, but it's unlikely they convert all those drives for touchdowns. Two field goals and one extra point will hit this total. 

Despite Allen leading the team in receiving touchdowns, it was Moore who led — by quite some margin — in targets (140), catches (98), and yards (966). Moore accounted for 26.6% of the target share overall to Allen’s 23%. In the RZ, that percentage increased to 30.9% (21 targets), with Rome Odunze next at 17 (25%).

Pricing rookies is never easy, but JJ McCarthy has had a full year to acclimate and now steps into a Kevin O’Connell offense that helped Sam Darnold generate MVP buzz late last season. Justin  Jefferson alone could cash this TD prop, especially with the Vikings ranking third in red-zone pass rate in neutral game scripts, per THE BLITZ. Minnesota scored 30 points in both games against Chicago last season, racking up 781 total yards at 5.74 yards per play. The move from Darnold to McCarthy shouldn't cause a major drop-off, and this matchup projects as the third-fastest-paced game of Week 1 (131.4 offensive plays). More pace means more opportunities.

Ben Johnson’s offense will need to get creative against Brian Flores’ aggressive defense on Monday night — but the track record against Minnesota is encouraging. Caleb Williams threw for 531 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs vs. the Vikings last year, and Jared Goff lit them up in 2024, completing 49 of 58 passes over two games with 62 total points. Enter Colston Loveland, the No. 10 overall pick in this year’s draft. He may not play a full snap share right away, but with Minnesota blitzing on 62% of plays and Johnson known for scheming up tight ends, Loveland could find himself with a few easy looks. At 6'6", he’s a legit red-zone threat and could rival Brock Bowers' rookie numbers if usage picks up. I like DJ Moore at +190, but Loveland at +400 is tough to ignore — especially with hopes that Cole Kmet is used more in pass protection.

After some lifeless preseason showings, Chicago might not have the same bite in 2025 and that leaves a soft secondary exposed. McCarthy has a great offensive line in front of him and even with the WR corps a bit thin, Jefferson and Hockenson make life easy on the young quarterback. While he didn’t suit up in the preseason, all the reviews on McCarthy out of camp are glowing. And speaking of preseason, Williams and the Bears attack turned heads in the preseason. While it was limited reps, Chicago’s offense looked great and brings plenty of pop to the MNF party. Williams had one of his best games against Minnesota last season and will put points on the board against this low total.

It’s the Vikings’ defense that will make the difference in Week 1. Chicago focused their attention on bolstering the offensive line this offseason. And it’ll need it. Minnesota brings a ton of blitz, cooking up pressure and translating that chaos into sacks and takeaways. The Bears are working in a new system from head coach Ben Johnson, who had success versus the Vikes in Detroit. But Chicago isn’t as talent rich as the Lions and there’s going to be a steep learning curve in Week 1. In a near pick’em game, I’ll take the better defense.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. Last year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has given up the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a monstrous 8.30 yards.. The Bears defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the league.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 57.9% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The Vikings pass defense has shown good efficiency last year, allowing 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.. The Vikings linebackers profile as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 57.9% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Last year, the fierce Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a paltry 5.3 yards.. Last year, the daunting Vikings pass defense has conceded the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a puny 7.0 YAC.. The Vikings linebackers profile as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 131.4 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. The Bears have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) last year.. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 3rd-best in the league last year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.4% of his offense's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to earn 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. As it relates to air yards, Justin Jefferson ranks in the towering 99th percentile among WRs last year, totaling a superb 107.0 per game.. Justin Jefferson rates as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers last year, averaging an exceptional 89.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 131.4 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. The Bears have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) last year.. With an elite 97.2% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) last year, D.J. Moore has been as one of the wideouts with the most usage in football.. The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to accrue 8.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. The model projects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.. With a remarkable 17.8% Target% (89th percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson rates among the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. T.J. Hockenson has totaled a colossal 52.0 air yards per game last year: 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.. T.J. Hockenson comes in as one of the leading TE receiving threats last year, averaging an exceptional 44.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to earn 3.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With an extraordinary 12.0% Target% (92nd percentile) last year, Aaron Jones ranks among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in football.. In regards to air yards, Aaron Jones grades out in the lofty 82nd percentile among running backs last year, accumulating an astounding 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. With an excellent 27.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (93rd percentile) last year, Aaron Jones ranks as one of the top pass-catching RBs in football.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) as a result of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions this week.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in football (141 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense last year.