Best NFL Picks Today

After being held out of the end zone in Week 1, I’m anticipating Barkley scoring against the Titans. Tennessee finished 28th in run defense DVOA and 24th in PFF run defense grade while allowing 142 rushing yards to backs in the season opener, and now they face an elite offensive line that ranked 10th in run block win rate last week. Of course, Barkley also handled 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone last year.

This is a fair number for Metcalf to find the end zone. He paced the Steelers in targets with a 27% share in Week 1, and he also garnered a respectable 28.6% of red-zone touches in 2025. Additionally, the 6-foot-4 Metcalf has a notable size advantage over the New England secondary, and I expect McCarthy to create opportunities for his go-to receiver to avoid being blanketed by Patriots star shadow cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Loveland was the Bears' first selection with the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. I.e., they plan on using him. Loveland caught a team-high six touchdown passes last season and was PFF's third-highest graded tight end.

The Falcons had the NFL's best defense in week one based on total EPA and success rate. The Panthers' D should look better without the explosive Chicago Bears offense on the other side of the ball. 

The New York Jets went to Breece Hall 22 times on the ground in Week 1, while also getting him two catches in the passing game. The Green Bay Packers posted a -0.05 EPA against the run in 2025, and played to that same number against the Minnesota Vikings last week. I'm backing Hall to score again in Week 2 at up to 50%.

Tyler Shough soared Over his 21.5 pass-completion prop last week vs. Detroit, connecting on 35-of-56 passes. But the Lions are missing their two best defensive backs, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, and the Ravens had the highest pressure rate in Week 1 with a league-average blitz rate. So, Baltimore can pressure Shough without sending too many defenders on the blitz. 

Schultz had team highs in receiving success rate (60.4%) and catches (82) last season while averaging 45.7 receiving yards per game. His target share should increase this week without Collins on the field. 

Play up to 60%. Bucky Irving's versatility gives him multiple paths to the end zone against Cleveland. He scored in Week 1 while rushing eight times for 45 yards and adding seven receptions. With Irving involved both on the ground and through the air, he should have plenty of opportunities around the goal line.

Tuten looked like Jacksonville’s most dangerous running back in Week 1, forcing five missed tackles while leading the backfield with 15 carries. Chris Rodriguez could still handle some goal-line work, but Tuten’s explosiveness gives him multiple paths to score against a Denver defense that surrendered two touchdowns to Kenneth Walker last week.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. In this contest, Kirk Cousins is projected by the model to wind up with the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.1. . The Chargers linebackers project as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Shaheed is a two-time Pro Bowler as a return specialist who can score in four different ways. He has 17 total touchdowns in 52 career games, which equals 32.7%. Shaheed has 12 receiving touchdowns, three punt return touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and one on a kick return.

Playable to 40%.

Mike Evans caught one of Brock Purdy's three touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Rams. He tied for the team-lead in targets among wideouts and is San Francisco's best red zone target at 6-foot-5. Evans has caught 11+ touchdowns in six different NFL seasons since entering the league in 2014 and could be on his way to a seventh such campaign if he can stay healthy in 2026.

So much for an improved Cowboys defense. In Week 1, they allowed 28 points and nine third-down conversions on 11 attempts against the Giants.  This matchup produced 66 and 53 points in two meetings last season and they look primed to trade punches again. Dallas is 7-0 to the Over in its last seven, Washington is 5-0 in its last five, and the Cowboys averaged 29.9 points at home last season. No need to overthink it. 

The Colts' defense looked like it belonged on a JV team against Derrick Henry last week, as he ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns while averaging six yards per carry. It won't get any easier against Kenneth Walker, who looked like the best version of himself against what should be one of the best units in football, running for 173 yards on 23 attempts against the Denver Broncos. We should see the same type of volume on Sunday night, and if the Chiefs handle their business in the first three quarters, expect them to lean on Walker heavily as they look to control the clock and earn their second win of the season. 

I know an Under to wrap up Week 2 isn't getting the blood flowing, but look what happened to the Giants last Sunday night. Dallas and New York combined to go 17-for-22 on third down and scored on all seven of their combined red-zone trips. That game went Over by a half-point on its closing 47.5-point total. There is a reason 48.5 is on the other side of a key number. The Giants will suck the clock with a new-look offense that finished second in Week 1 in success rate, and they face a Rams defense without Myles Garrett that ranks third-worst in success rate. The Giants will sustain drives, but finishing them won't be as easy as it was last week. The Rams' offense isn't one that scares me from an explosive-play standpoint. They ran 3-TE sets at a 38% rate in Week 1, the second-most, and still had a -13.89 pass rate over expected in a losing effort. This projects as a slow game, and the Rams could still need some time to get up to 2026 speed on offense.