Best NFL Picks Today

I'll back the Seattle Seahawks at 57% on the moneyline, as I price them closer to 61% favorites on the road against the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix relies heavily on defined reads and quick-hitting concepts to succeed, and Seattle's front four should be able to generate pressure. That will allow Mike Macdonald to drop seven into coverage, disguise looks, and disrupt Nix's pre-snap reads. Julian Love is one of the league's best safeties, and I expect him to be a major factor in confusing Nix and disrupting his ability to read the defense.

The Texans turn their attention to Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence, who won’t have LT Anton Harrison (knee) watching his blindside for the rest of the season. Lawrence was already feeling pressure at the 13th highest rate, taking 10 sacks and suffering 19 QB hits. Houston currently sits second in the league with 18 sacks and 11th in pressure rate per dropback, despite blitzing at the fourth lowest rate. That pressure from just the front four, including sack leader Will Anderson Jr., is Lawrence’s kryptonite. After five games, the Jags QB rates 10th among all passers at PFF when kept clean (91.2) but watches that measurement melt to 37th when under pressure (36.4). Lawrence’s completion rate sinks below 42% and he’s thrown two of his three interceptions while under duress.

The Panthers are fifth in offensive yards per play and sixth in passing EPA. the Eagles are 22nd in defensive EPA, so look for Carolina's explosive offense to roll. The Eagles could get back Saquon Barkely and DeVonta Smith, so expect the low totals cutoff to rise as the weak goes on. Get in early on the Over

Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has cooked up the 12th highest pressure rate, with 11 sacks and a league-high 29 QB hits powering the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN. Ulbrich is going to test Williams’ wonky hamstring and his mobility early and often in Week 6. And that’s when Chicago gets to touch the ball. Atlanta’s ground-and-pound approach is chowing down on the fourth highest time of possession, burning through the 11th most seconds per play clock. The law firm of Robinson & Robinson are running all over opponents, with the third best success rate per handoff.

For as good as the Jets' defense has been, the Patriots have been pretty damn solid themselves. New England ranks sixth in total defense, 14th in defensive EPA/play, and is taking on a subpar Jets offense ranked 26th in total yards. I'm fine with fading Geno Smith and a streaky Drake Maye, who are a total 7-3 to the Under this year. No matter how you slice it, this is going to be a tough defensive battle on a cold Sunday afternoon. The numbers are screaming at the top of the rooftops to take this Under, you should listen.

Kansas City’s offense is rolling in Episode 2 of the Eric Bieniemy Experience, with the team rating in the Top 10 of all the sexy advanced metrics and placing fourth in points per play. The Chiefs face a Bolts team that can’t seem to string together two positive plays before either turning the ball over or getting flagged for a penalty. The Chargers have the ninth lowest success rate on third down and picked up just 14 first downs in a loss to Denver Sunday. This will be L.A.’s third road game in the past four weeks and a much-needed bye in Week 7 could serve as look-ahead bait for the Bolts.

Jordan Love has thrown for 300+ yards in three of five games so far and faces a dreadful Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday Night Football. He's has enjoyed past meetings with the Cowboys, amassing 337 yards and three touchdowns last season and connecting for three TDs and 272 yards in Green Bay’s infamous ass-waxing of Dallas in the 2023 Wild Card Round. The Cowboys are off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay at home last Thursday. Three turnovers sucked all the juice out of a big night for QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 316 yards in Week 5. Dallas’ defense is getting blown away by explosive downfield plays, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per play.