Best NFL Picks Today

At 39%, I'll hit the button on Parker Washington to score a touchdown, as I price him closer to 45% to find the end zone against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore frequently sends five or more pass rushers in the red zone, which should force Trevor Lawrence to get the ball out quickly and rely on his first read. Lining up in the slot, Washington has the ability to turn a quick target into a big play with his yards-after-catch ability, making him an appealing option to find the end zone. 

I was hesitant to add Mike Gesicki to the card, as his touchdown streak of five straight games felt unsustainable given his snap and route shares. However, last week he ran 72% of the routes, a season high. I'm hoping the Bengals are pass-heavy again on the road indoors, and the injuries to the Bengals' secondary could help that cause and push this game into neautral/negative game script. I got Gesicki at 3.45x against a fair price of 3.2x, with Joe Burrow getting him the ball.

The Cowboys get to beat up on the slump-buster Colts this week, and with Jake Ferguson questionable and Luke Schoonmaker missing Week 8, this is the week to buy Brevyn Spann-Ford stock. I have his TD at 25% (4.0x), and if Ferguson misses the game, I think this should be priced closer to 3.2x. The Colts are also one of the worst teams in football at defending the TE position, allowing the fifth-most tight-end TDs per game. The Jaguars didn't need to pass much last week against this Indy defense, but their tight ends still tied for the team lead in targets and finished second in receiving yards. Playing indoors only adds to the appeal.

The Rams could be without both starting cornerbacks and their starting safety in a game where Washington will likely have to pass more than it wants to. Stefon Diggs might not play 85% of the snaps, but he's on the field for passing downs and leads the team with a 23% target share, which jumps to 28% on routes run. As the No. 1 receiver, getting his TD at longer than 3x is value, as I have his fair price around 2.8x. Diggs has twice as many red-zone targets as the next-best WR and has caught a TD in each of the five games Jayden Daniels has started, with five total across four games.

Rashee Rice returned to action last week after missing two games and scored on a team-high eight targets. Now he gets to face a defense that just allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for three scores and gave up 38 points. Even at 2.23x, I'd still play Rice to 2.1x this week vs. a defense that has the fourth-worst TD rate per game to opposing wide receivers. In his four games this year, Rice has either scored a TD or gone for 80+ yards.

I price Jameson Williams closer to 45% to score a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins, making the 37% available at Kalshi an easy buy. Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to command attention underneath should create opportunities for Williams to exploit one-on-one matchups on the boundary. With the Dolphins forced to dedicate additional defensive help to St. Brown, Williams has a chance to take advantage of those isolation looks and find the end zone. 

I've hit in back-to-back weeks with this backfield, which is never an easy thing to do, but it does look like Jonah Coleman is the preferred hand in this division-leading offense. The rookie had 15 touches last week with RJ Harvey (IR) out and logged six red-zone carries and one target in Week 8. That was one of the heaviest red-zone workloads of any player in football. The Panthers are a dream matchup, as they allow the most TDs to opposing running backs and rank in the bottom five in red-zone TD%. With the Broncos sitting around a touchdown favorite, the run game should be on display, and Coleman is a buy for me at even money or better this week.

There are some uncertainties surrounding the Eagles' offense, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks questionable midweek. However, that could open the door for the steadiest of all the pass catchers on this team, Dallas Goedert, to find the end zone at 3.5x. I have his fair price at 3.2x. The Giants rank in the bottom five in red-zone TD%, and Goedert has seen 19 targets across the three games with Tanner McKee under center. That makes him one of the safer TD bets in an Eagles offense where several key contributors are carrying injury designations.

David Montgomery is not ready to return, and even if he were, this would still likely be Woody Marks' backfield in an indoor matchup against one of the best running back matchups on paper. The Texans offense is healthy and loaded coming out of the bye and gets to face a team that has failed to cover a single game this season. They're also one of just five teams allowing more than 1.00 running back TD per game. The last time we saw Marks, he played 89% of the snaps and handled 19 carries. He has very little competition for touches and should get the bulk of the red-zone work against a defense dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. I'd play Marks to 53% this week.

Mike Washington was the featured back for the Raiders last week in their 38-point outburst. Although he didn't find the end zone, he handled 25 carries, the third-most by any running back in Week 8. It's not the easiest matchup against the 49ers coming off their bye, but this is all about price. At 2.85x, the potential volume makes him a buy, and he's one I'd play down to 2.35x this week. Ashton Jeanty is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season and has been heavily criticized in the media this week. It's time for him to sit back and watch the better back.

The Pats’ blitz-heavy schemes may work against the likes of Malik Willis and Geno Smith, but Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is one of the top passers at picking apart the blitz. He’s busted blitz-happy opponents like Carolina, Chicago, and Minnesota for big gains in 2026. Love is also elite throwing against man coverage, which New England uses at the third-highest frequency. 

I'm definitely hitting the button here, as I price Luther Burden closer to a 43% chance to score a touchdown on Sunday Night Football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay frequently deploys zone coverage in the red zone, and Burden grades out as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL against zone defenses. He should be able to exploit soft spots in coverage, find open space between the second and third levels, and give himself a strong opportunity to find the end zone.

Give me the Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline, as I price them closer to a 45% underdog. At 38% on Kalshi, I'm definitely hitting the button. All you hear about the Vikings is how their 6-1 record is fraudulent and they're due to come crashing back to earth. But with a rocking home crowd, extra preparation time for Brian Flores to get his defense ready for Josh Allen, and the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, I think Minnesota is the side here. It's the Bills who are the real frauds.