Wake Forest vs Louisville Picks & Props
WAKE vs LOU Picks
NCAAF PicksLouisville scored 41 points against SMU, but they benefited from three SMU turnovers and a defense that didn't offer much resistance against their ground attack. Keyjuan Brown ran for 163 yards on only 10 carries after totaling a combined 68 rushing yards in his first two games. Isaac Brown averaged a season-high 6.7 yards per carry against the Mustangs.
Neither of Louisville's top running backs figure to find that much room to operate again in Week 4, facing a Wake Forest run defense that held Purdue to 3.2 yards per carry and Miami to 4.6 yards per carry. An inability to generate explosive plays with their ground attack is going to put a lot of pressure on Lincoln Kienholz, which is not a recipe for offensive success against a top-tier Wake Forest secondary unit.
Playable to 57%.
Playable to 54%.
Miami allowed a season-worst pressure rate against Wake Forest in Week 3, which contributed to their second-half offensive struggles.
Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is coming off of a a clean performance against SMU, but he was pressured on only 6-of-25 dropbacks in that contest. Kienholz averaged only 8.3 yards per completion under pressure in that contest, compared to 11.1 yards per completion from a clean pocket. This season, Kienholz has only a 46.7% completion rate against pressure, versus a 69.5% completion rate from a clean pocket.
Wake Forest isn't going to allow Louisville's ground attack to gain 265 yards this weekend, which propelled the majority of their 41-point output against SMU. If the Cardinals can't give Kienholz time to make throws from a clean pocket, it's difficult to see their offense having much success.
Playable to 51%.
Heading into Week 3, Miami looked like an offensive juggernaut, with Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney emerging as clear Heisman front-runners. Wake Forest limited Mensah to an anemic 6.5 yards per attempt through the air, minimizing explosive plays throughout the game.
Miami's previously unstoppable offense gained only 26 yards and failed to score on any of their final six possessions against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes offense went 3-and-out on four of those six drives.
The Demon Deacons emerged as a top-tier defense under coordinator Scott Hazelton in 2025. They returned 9 starters for 2026, giving Hazelton even more talent at his disposal in his second year with the program. Expect Wake Forest to put a lot of pressure on Louisville's offense this Saturday.
If looking for a combo to sweat this weekend, Wake Forest to cover in a low-scoring game is a correlated outcome playable to 24%.
WAKE vs LOU Consensus Picks
48% picking Wake Forest
Total Picks WAKE 220, LOU 236
WAKE vs LOU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
WAKE
G. Lopez
(QB)
u249.5 Passing Yards
238.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.5
DIFFERENCE
21.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WAKE
D. Lawrence
(RB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
43.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
25.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LOU
K. Brown
(RB)
o74.5 Rushing Yards
88.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.7
DIFFERENCE
24.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
47.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WAKE
T. Clark III
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
32.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
24.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
I. Brown
(RB)
o80.5 Rushing Yards
84.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
T. Richardson
(WR)
o64.5 Receiving Yards
84.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.7
DIFFERENCE
27.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WAKE
K. Shanks
(WR)
o17.5 Receiving Yards
31.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.8
DIFFERENCE
26.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WAKE
C. Hernandez
(WR)
o71.5 Receiving Yards
88.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.2
DIFFERENCE
25.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
L. McCoy
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
61.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
22.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
T. Hurry
(WR)
u35.5 Receiving Yards
31.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.2
DIFFERENCE
18.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
T. Richardson
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
17.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WAKE
K. Shanks
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
12.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
L. McCoy
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
11.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WAKE
C. Hernandez
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
6.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-6.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
WAKE
D. Lawrence
(RB)
o7.5 Carries
10.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
22.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o9.5 Carries
11.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
15.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
LOU
K. Brown
(RB)
o12.5 Carries
13.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
12.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
I. Brown
(RB)
o13.5 Carries
13.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
10.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
WAKE
T. Clark III
(RB)
o6.5 Carries
7.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
-0.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
WAKE
G. Lopez
(QB)
o9.5 Carries
9.53 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-8.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
19.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
13.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
WAKE
G. Lopez
(QB)
o20.5 Completions
21.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-5.72%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 5-0 in Demon Deacons last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games overall.
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-0 in Demon Deacons last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Demon Deacons last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
ROI Trends
WAKE vs LOU Top User Picks
'Haroldjr33' is picking Louisville to cover (-13.5)
Haroldjr33 is #2 on picking games that Wake Forest is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'buffalo2007' is picking Louisville to cover (-12.5)
buffalo2007 is #2 on picking games that Louisville is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'tkeeton' is picking Wake Forest to cover (+13.5)
tkeeton is #3 on picking games that Wake Forest is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'cucamonga' is picking Louisville to cover (-12.5)
cucamonga is #3 on picking games that Louisville is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'adgadg222' is picking Louisville to cover (-12.5)
adgadg222 is #4 on picking games that Wake Forest is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'teslaxyz' is picking Wake Forest to cover (+13.5)
teslaxyz is #5 on picking games that Wake Forest is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'PaullyWallnuts' is picking Louisville to cover (-13.5)
PaullyWallnuts is #8 on picking games that Louisville is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'oneg' is picking Wake Forest to cover (+13.5)
oneg is #8 on picking games that Wake Forest is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.