Texas A&M vs LSU Picks & Props
TAM vs LSU Picks
NCAAF PicksConsidering the struggles of both pass attacks, I'm expecting these coaches to ease their offenses into the game. The Aggies score 11.0 more points per game in the first half, and the Tigers score 8.0 more points per game in the first half.
Defense is the better unit for the Aggies and Tigers. Both have better defensive conversion rates on third down and in the red zone. According to GameOnPaper.com, both offenses have a below-average explosive play rate. Both pass rushes have an edge over the opponent's pass protection.
Texas A&M +8.5 is tradable down to +7.5 because this spread has moved too much from the offseason look-ahead. Aggies head coach Mike Elko has built an elite program and this is LSU head coach Lane Kiffin's first season. I don't trust Tigers QB Sam Leavitt, who ranks 14th out of 16 SEC quarterbacks.
Both teams are coming off very different losses. Texas A&M lost by double digits at home to unranked Kentucky in a game the Aggies never really had control of after their second-quarter TD. LSU lost on the road by one score in an all-time hostile environment at The Vaught (LSU even had a higher net success rate than Ole Miss in the loss). Marcel Reed is not Trinidad Chambliss and will have difficulty moving the ball against a Tigers defense ranked Top two in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and available yards percentage.
I'm handicapping a slower, tighter game than the market expects, especially in the first half. The Aggies have enough talent to stay within one score, while both offenses have struggled to generate explosive plays and face pass rushes capable of disrupting their shaky quarterback play.
TAM vs LSU Consensus Picks
TAM vs LSU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o202.5 Passing Yards
231.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+28.8
DIFFERENCE
26.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
S. Leavitt
(QB)
u239.5 Passing Yards
224.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-15.1
DIFFERENCE
23.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
21.61 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.9
DIFFERENCE
25.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
65.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.0
DIFFERENCE
20.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
u94.5 Rushing Yards
89.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.7
DIFFERENCE
18.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
J. Harris
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
52.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.6
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
56.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
26.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
M. Craver
(WR)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
70.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
24.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
14.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
24.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
54.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.0
DIFFERENCE
24.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
u11.5 Receiving Yards
11.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
20.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions
1.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
16.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
M. Craver
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.19 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-6.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o18.5 Completions
21.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
17.98%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 8-1 in Aggies last 9 road games.
Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 11-1 in Aggies last 12 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.
Over is 9-1 in Aggies last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.