Houston vs Texas Tech Picks & Props
HOU vs TTU Picks
NCAAF PicksAlthough Will Hammond has been rusty in his return from a torn ACL, Texas Tech was able to put 35 on the board last week on the road in the pouring rain. And Houston's pass defense (81st in EPA per play) is actually worse than Oregon State's (69th). Tech's offensive line (which has allowed just five pressures) will be the key to a big scoring performance under the Friday night lights.
Between Houston's offensive continuity - seventh nationally in returning offensive production (71%) - and its defensive struggles, this game sets up well for the Over. The Cougars' defense is 81st in EPA per pass and 96th in early-down EPA, and takes on a Texas Tech team with one of the best O-lines in the country. But the Cougars should score, too, with their offense sitting second in success rate (61.2%).
Over the first two weeks of the season, both Houston and Texas Tech have played an FCS program and Oregon State. Neither looked all that impressive against the Beavers, but the Red Raiders have the defensive advantage in this matchup. The Red Raiders' defense is fourth nationally in early-down EPA per play and ranked 11th overall by SP+. If Tech can pressure Conner Weigman, he'll make mistakes. Weigman was Top 20 in the P4 turnover-worthy play rate last season (3.9%).
Texas Tech hasn't played up to its ability thus far, but it has one of the best defenses in the country and an offensive line capable of setting the tone. The Red Raiders should be able to take advantage of a Houston defense that's 81st in EPA per play and 96th in early-down EPA. And in the second half, I expect their defense to pin its ears back and force Conner Weigman into mistakes. I like Tech to win this 33-24.
HOU vs TTU Consensus Picks
HOU vs TTU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
TTU
W. Hammond
(QB)
o225.5 Passing Yards
255.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+29.7
DIFFERENCE
25.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
C. Weigman
(QB)
u227.5 Passing Yards
222.63 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.9
DIFFERENCE
8.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TTU
C. Dickey
(RB)
o42.5 Rushing Yards
49.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
22.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
HOU
M. Hughes
(RB)
u51.5 Rushing Yards
49.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.5
DIFFERENCE
17.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Weigman
(QB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
30.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
14.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TTU
J. Williams
(RB)
u72.5 Rushing Yards
68.86 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.6
DIFFERENCE
13.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TTU
J. Williams
(RB)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
35.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.1
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HOU
P. Overmyer
(TE)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
52.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.0
DIFFERENCE
25.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HOU
M. Hughes
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
11.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
25.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HOU
A. Thomas
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
82.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.6
DIFFERENCE
25.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HOU
K. Young
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
34.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
22.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TTU
C. Eakin
(WR)
o48.5 Receiving Yards
54.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
21.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HOU
T. Walker
(WR)
o28.5 Receiving Yards
31.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
18.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TTU
J. Williams
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions
4.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
20.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
HOU
K. Young
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
16.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
HOU
P. Overmyer
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
4.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
15.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TTU
K. Johnson
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.48 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
HOU
A. Thomas
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions
5.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TTU
C. Eakin
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.66%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
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- Proj. Rating: Low to High
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- +EV: Low to High
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Recent Form Trends
Over is 8-0 in Cougars last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 games as a road favorite.
Cougars are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Cougars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Red Raiders last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 games in September.