SMU 12th ACC0-0

Florida State 3rd ACC1-0

7:30PM ET 7:30PM ET · Sep 07, 2026

SMU vs Florida State Picks & Props

SMU vs FSU Picks

NCAAF Picks

Total

u53.5 (-120)

Best Odds

u53.5 -110

Pick made: 17 hours ago

u53.5 -110

u53.5 -112

u52.5 -111

u53.5 -110

u53.5 -112

u53.5 -114

u53.5 -115

In Week 0, against a New Mexico State defense that was ranked 121st by SP+ last year, Florida State had just 17 points midway through the third quarter. The Seminoles' offense is clearly flawed with Ashton Daniels at QB. If the Mustangs' defense, which ranked 15th in EPA per rush in 2025, slows FSU's ground game, the Under will be in position to hit.

Spread

SMU -2.5 (-127)

Best Odds

0.0 -159

Pick made: 17 hours ago

-2.5 -130

-2.5 -129

-2.5 -122

-2.5 -125

0.0 -159

-2.5 -125

Florida State looked like one of the least prepared teams to take the field in Week 0. The Seminoles struggled with a G6 bottom-feeder at home (New Mexico State) and now must deal with an SMU team that's ranked in the Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%). SMU was 12th in EPA per rush on defense last year and can slow FSU's run-first approach. The Mustangs' offense is in even better shape with QB Kevin Jennings behind one of the ACC's most experienced O-lines.

Moneyline

SMU (-154)

Best Odds

-145

Pick made: yesterday

-150

-155

-150

-156

-150

-145

-150

Florida State’s ugly performance against New Mexico State has me officially putting Mike Norvell on the hate list. The Seminoles allowed a Diego Pavia-less Aggies team to rack up more than 300 total yards, throw for more than 270 yards and convert 10 of 17 third downs. While some may chalk it up to a look-ahead spot, Florida State looked far too unprepared for me to buy it. SMU has plenty of tape on those early flaws and should have the talent to exploit them. I’m taking the Mustangs on the moneyline rather than laying points in this early-season matchup.

3 LEG PARLAY

SMU -2.5

Spread

u53.5

Total

o27.5 Team Total

Game Prop

Bet now

+492

Pick made: 17 hours ago

Florida State struggled to sustain drives in Week 0 against a Group of Six bottom-feeder. It's going to be hard for the Seminoles to score more than 24 points against an SMU team that's a CFP contender in the ACC. SMU returns a star QB in Kevin Jennings, behind an experienced O-line that should help him expose an FSU defense that wasn't Top 50 in EPA per pass or EPA per rush last year.

Passing Yards

Ashton Daniels o209.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Projection 229.7457 (Over)

Best Odds

o209.5 +100

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o209.5 +100

o224.5 +105

o216.5 -114

Rushing Yards

Kevin Jennings u10.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 6.8607 (Under)

Best Odds

u10.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u10.5 -115

Rushing Yards

Ousmane Kromah o59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 71.5568 (Over)

Best Odds

o59.5 -115

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o59.5 -115

o60.5 -112

o63.5 -114

o69.5 -115

Rushing Yards

Kendrick Raphael u71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 59.3791 (Under)

Best Odds

u71.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u71.5 -115

u64.5 -114

Receiving Yards

Yamir Knight o49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 67.7093 (Over)

Best Odds

o49.5 -114

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o59.5 +110

o49.5 -114

o49.5 -115

Spread

52% picking SMU

52% 52%

48% 48%

Total Picks SMU 228, FSU 209

Spread

SMU

FSU

Spread

+0.0 -159

+0.0 +128

Total

44% picking SMU vs Florida State to go Under

56% 56%

44% 44%

Total PicksSMU 128, FSU 102

Total

Over

Under

Total

52.5 -115

53.5 -110

SMU vs FSU Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
PASSING YARDS FSU A. Daniels (QB) o209.5 Passing Yards 229.75 OVER PROJECTION +20.2 DIFFERENCE 25.85% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds DraftKings Best Odds o209.5 +100 - - o209.5 +100 - o224.5 +105 - o216.5 -114 - - FSU A. Daniels (QB) o209.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 229.75 OVER PROJECTION +20.2 DIFFERENCE 25.85% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o209.5 +100
RUSHING YARDS K. Jennings (QB) u10.5 Rushing Yards 6.86 UNDER PROJECTION -3.6 DIFFERENCE 25.88% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds u10.5 -115 - u10.5 -115 - - - - - - - K. Jennings (QB) u10.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 6.86 UNDER PROJECTION -3.6 DIFFERENCE 25.88% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u10.5 -115
RUSHING YARDS FSU O. Kromah (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards 71.56 OVER PROJECTION +12.1 DIFFERENCE 25.02% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o59.5 -115 - o59.5 -115 o60.5 -112 o63.5 -114 o69.5 -115 - - - - FSU O. Kromah (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 71.56 OVER PROJECTION +12.1 DIFFERENCE 25.02% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o59.5 -115
RUSHING YARDS SMU K. Raphael (RB) u71.5 Rushing Yards 59.38 UNDER PROJECTION -12.1 DIFFERENCE 24.08% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds u71.5 -115 - u71.5 -115 - u64.5 -114 - - - - - SMU K. Raphael (RB) u71.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 59.38 UNDER PROJECTION -12.1 DIFFERENCE 24.08% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u71.5 -115
RECEIVING YARDS SMU Y. Knight (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards 67.71 OVER PROJECTION +18.2 DIFFERENCE 26.14% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds FanDuel Best Odds o49.5 -114 - - o59.5 +110 o49.5 -114 o49.5 -115 - - - - SMU Y. Knight (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards PROJECTION 67.71 OVER PROJECTION +18.2 DIFFERENCE 26.14% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o49.5 -114

PASSING YARDS

FSU

A. Daniels (QB) o209.5 Passing Yards

229.75 OVER PROJECTION

+20.2 DIFFERENCE

25.85% EV

Rating:

o209.5 +100

o224.5 +105

o216.5 -114

RUSHING YARDS

K. Jennings (QB) u10.5 Rushing Yards

6.86 UNDER PROJECTION

-3.6 DIFFERENCE

25.88% EV

Rating:

u10.5 -115

RUSHING YARDS

FSU

O. Kromah (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards

71.56 OVER PROJECTION

+12.1 DIFFERENCE

25.02% EV

Rating:

o59.5 -115

o60.5 -112

o63.5 -114

o69.5 -115

RUSHING YARDS

SMU

K. Raphael (RB) u71.5 Rushing Yards

59.38 UNDER PROJECTION

-12.1 DIFFERENCE

24.08% EV

Rating:

u71.5 -115

u64.5 -114

RECEIVING YARDS

SMU

Y. Knight (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards

67.71 OVER PROJECTION

+18.2 DIFFERENCE

26.14% EV

Rating:

o49.5 -114

o59.5 +110

o49.5 -114

o49.5 -115

Recent Form Trends

Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games in September.
Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games overall.
Seminoles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games on grass.
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-2 in Mustangs last 8 games as a favorite.

ROI Trends

SMU Trends

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 73% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)

SMU

FSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1Q

Compare odds

SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 91% ROI)

SMU

FSU

Game Line - Spread - 1Q

Compare odds

SMU has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 1 of their last 12 games (-11.80 Units / -84% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

SMU has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 13 games (-10.52 Units / -71% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

SMU has only hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 13 games (-5.95 Units / -41% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

SMU has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 away games (-4.95 Units / -55% ROI)

SMU

FSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1H

Compare odds

Sabster611 is #9 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread

SMU

FSU

Spread

+0.0 -159

+0.0 +128

SMU vs Florida State Picks & Props

SMU vs FSU Picks

SMU vs FSU Consensus Picks

52% picking SMU

44% picking SMU vs Florida State to go Under

SMU vs FSU Props

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 73% ROI)

SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)

SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)

SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)

SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 91% ROI)

SMU has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 1 of their last 12 games (-11.80 Units / -84% ROI)

SMU has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 13 games (-10.52 Units / -71% ROI)

SMU has only hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 13 games (-5.95 Units / -41% ROI)

SMU has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 away games (-4.95 Units / -55% ROI)

SMU has only hit the Team Total Under in 2 of their last 7 games (-3.75 Units / -47% ROI)

SMU vs FSU Top User Picks

'pastorhollywood' is picking Florida State to cover (+3.5)

'pastorhollywood' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Over (52.5)

'Alexmaldonado' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Over (53.5)

'Alexmaldonado' is picking SMU to cover (-2.5)

'biggulp' is picking Florida State to cover (+2.5)

'biggulp' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Over (53.5)

'bondsman0' is picking Florida State to cover (+2.5)

'bondsman0' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Under (53.5)

'adgadg222' is picking Florida State to cover (+2.5)

'adgadg222' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Over (53.5)

'CastlemontDB91' is picking SMU to cover (-2.5)

'CastlemontDB91' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Over (53.5)

'Bikkembergs' is picking SMU to cover (-2.5)

'Bikkembergs' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Under (53.5)

'Sabster611' picks SMU vs Florida State to go Under (53.5)

'Sabster611' is picking SMU to cover (-2.5)

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