Toledo 11th MAC0-0

Michigan State 6th Big Ten0-0

8:00PM ET 8:00PM ET · Sep 04, 2026

Toledo vs Michigan State Picks & Props

TOL vs MSU Picks

NCAAF Picks

Spread

MSU -9.5 (-111)

Best Odds

-10.5 +100

Pick made: 14 hours ago

-10.0 -110

-9.5 -120

-9.5 -123

-10.5 -105

-10.5 +100

-9.5 -119

-9.5 -120

-10.5 +100

-10.5 -105

Purdue is 4-1 to the Under in its past five games as a favorite, which is rare since it'll most likely be an underdog in every Big Ten game this season. That tells me the Boilermakers like bullying weaker teams.

2 LEG PARLAY

MSU -9.5

Spread

u47.5

Total

Bet now

+288

Pick made: 15 hours ago

I'm going off muscle memory, but Fitzgerald was a linebacker at Northwestern from 1993-96, and his teams play smash-mouth football. Or at least he did at Northwestern. And, typically, coaches with a defensive background have less aerial teams who prefer to establish the run.

Furthermore, the Wildcats had a 13-34-1 Over/Under record vs. non-conference teams as a favorite of -7 or greater with a -5.0 margin on the total. They are averaging roughly 46 carries for 216.2 yards in those games.

I don't bet based on trends unless I can make sense of them. Yet, in this case, Northwestern liked to ground-and-pound inferior competition and take the air out of the ball.

Rushing Yards

Cam Edwards u74.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Projection 69.8341 (Under)

Best Odds

u74.5 -120

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u73.5 -115

u74.5 -120

Spread

45% picking Toledo

45% 45%

55% 55%

Total Picks TOL 206, MSU 255

Spread

TOL

MSU

Spread

+10.5 -115

-10.5 +100

Total

59% picking Toledo vs Michigan State to go Under

41% 41%

59% 59%

Total PicksTOL 117, MSU 169

Total

Over

Under

Total

45.5 -115

47.5 -110

TOL vs MSU Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
SPREAD TOL +10.5 spread 8.58 PROJECTION -1.9 DIFFERENCE 11.67% EV Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5 Best odds FanDuel Best Odds +10.5 -115 +10.0 -105 +9.5 +100 +9.5 -108 +10.5 -115 +10.5 -120 +9.5 -105 +9.5 -105 +10.5 -120 +10.5 -115 TOL +10.5 spread PROJECTION 8.58 PROJECTION -1.9 DIFFERENCE 11.67% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. +10.5 -115
TOTAL Under 46.5 Total 48.86 OVER PROJECTION +2.4 DIFFERENCE 3.9% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds Hard Rock Bet Best Odds u47.5 -110 u46.5 -105 u46.5 -105 u46.5 -105 u46.5 -113 u47.0 -115 u46.5 -110 u46.5 -107 u45.5 -105 u47.5 -110 Under 46.5 Total PROJECTION 48.86 OVER PROJECTION +2.4 DIFFERENCE 3.9% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u47.5 -110
PASSING YARDS MSU A. Milivojevic (QB) o234.5 Passing Yards 234.80 OVER PROJECTION +0.3 DIFFERENCE -6.83% EV Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5 Best odds theScore Bet Best Odds o234.5 -120 - o241.5 -115 o239.5 -105 - - - - o234.5 -120 - MSU A. Milivojevic (QB) o234.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 234.80 OVER PROJECTION +0.3 DIFFERENCE -6.83% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o234.5 -120
RUSHING YARDS MSU C. Edwards (RB) u74.5 Rushing Yards 69.83 UNDER PROJECTION -4.7 DIFFERENCE 17.96% EV Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5 Best odds theScore Bet Best Odds u74.5 -120 - u73.5 -115 - - - - - u74.5 -120 - MSU C. Edwards (RB) u74.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 69.83 UNDER PROJECTION -4.7 DIFFERENCE 17.96% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u74.5 -120
RECEIVING YARDS MSU C. McCray (WR) u52.5 Receiving Yards 51.42 UNDER PROJECTION -1.1 DIFFERENCE -19.5% EV Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5 Best odds theScore Bet Best Odds u54.5 -125 - u52.5 -115 - - - - - u54.5 -125 - MSU C. McCray (WR) u52.5 Receiving Yards PROJECTION 51.42 UNDER PROJECTION -1.1 DIFFERENCE -19.5% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u54.5 -125

SPREAD

TOL +10.5 spread

8.58 PROJECTION

-1.9 DIFFERENCE

11.67% EV

Rating:

+10.5 -115

+10.0 -105

+9.5 +100

+9.5 -108

+10.5 -115

+10.5 -120

+9.5 -105

+10.5 -120

+10.5 -115

TOTAL

Under 46.5 Total

48.86 OVER PROJECTION

+2.4 DIFFERENCE

3.9% EV

Rating:

u47.5 -110

u46.5 -105

u46.5 -113

u47.0 -115

u46.5 -110

u46.5 -107

u45.5 -105

u47.5 -110

PASSING YARDS

MSU

A. Milivojevic (QB) o234.5 Passing Yards

234.80 OVER PROJECTION

+0.3 DIFFERENCE

-6.83% EV

Rating:

o234.5 -120

o241.5 -115

o239.5 -105

o234.5 -120

RUSHING YARDS

MSU

C. Edwards (RB) u74.5 Rushing Yards

69.83 UNDER PROJECTION

-4.7 DIFFERENCE

17.96% EV

Rating:

u74.5 -120

u73.5 -115

u74.5 -120

RECEIVING YARDS

MSU

C. McCray (WR) u52.5 Receiving Yards

51.42 UNDER PROJECTION

-1.1 DIFFERENCE

-19.5% EV

Rating:

u54.5 -125

u52.5 -115

u54.5 -125

Recent Form Trends

Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Rockets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 vs. MAC.
Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games as a road favorite.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

ROI Trends

Toledo Trends

Toledo has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)

Toledo have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Spread - FT

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Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Spread - 1H

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Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

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Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Moneyline - FT

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Toledo has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 7 away games (-6.00 Units / -74% ROI)

Toledo have only covered the 1Q Spread in 1 of their last 7 away games (-5.85 Units / -74% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Spread - 1Q

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Toledo has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 12 games (-5.25 Units / -38% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

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Toledo has only hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 7 away games (-3.50 Units / -45% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

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Michigan State Trends

Michigan State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Spread - FT

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Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

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Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

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Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

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Michigan State has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 11 games (-9.15 Units / -36% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1H

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Michigan State has only hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 9 games (-8.70 Units / -75% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Moneyline - FT

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Michigan State has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 9 games (-7.00 Units / -66% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1Q

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Michigan State has only hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 11 games (-6.23 Units / -50% ROI)

Michigan State have only covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 11 games (-3.90 Units / -30% ROI)

TOL

MSU

Game Line - Spread - 1H

Compare odds

There are no User Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Team Leaders to see all User picks.

Toledo Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
All Rockets Money Leaders

Michigan State Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
All Spartans Money Leaders

Top User Picks

Toledo vs Michigan State Picks & Props

TOL vs MSU Picks

TOL vs MSU Consensus Picks

Consensus Picks

45% picking Toledo

59% picking Toledo vs Michigan State to go Under

TOL vs MSU Props

How is Value calculated?

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

Toledo Trends

Toledo has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)

Toledo have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)

Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Toledo has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 7 away games (-6.00 Units / -74% ROI)

Toledo have only covered the 1Q Spread in 1 of their last 7 away games (-5.85 Units / -74% ROI)

Toledo has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 12 games (-5.25 Units / -38% ROI)

Toledo has only hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 7 away games (-3.50 Units / -45% ROI)

Michigan State Trends

Michigan State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Michigan State has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 11 games (-9.15 Units / -36% ROI)

Michigan State has only hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 9 games (-8.70 Units / -75% ROI)

Michigan State has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 9 games (-7.00 Units / -66% ROI)

Michigan State has only hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 11 games (-6.23 Units / -50% ROI)

Michigan State have only covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 11 games (-3.90 Units / -30% ROI)

TOL vs MSU Top User Picks

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