Braylon Braxton Pass Attempts Props • Southern Miss
B. Braxton
quarterback QB • Southern Miss
Western Kentucky @ Southern Miss Picks & Props
WKU vs USM Picks
NCAAF Picks
Spread
WKU -2.5 (-110)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Western Kentucky ranks 23rd in third-down conversion rate, 32nd in points per quality drive, and 29th in completion rate. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles will have a mismatch with a defense that ranked 115th in getting third down stops, 111th in points per quality drive, and 85th in EPA/dropback.
The Hilltopers are elite at limiting points on quality drives, ranking fourth with just 2.2 PPQD allowed. The Golden Eagles rank 59th in that metric, behind an offense that sits 110th in dropback success rate.
Western Kentucky has the better defense, and has an offense that will keep drives going with third down conversions. Add in the penalty issues that have plagued Southern Miss all season, and you've got a great spot to back the better team laying less than a field goal.
Receptions
EM
Elijah Metcalf u5.5 Receptions (+120)
Projection 4.427 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receptions
CC
Carl Chester u3.5 Receptions (-150)
Projection 3.0141 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receptions
MD
Micah Davis u2.5 Receptions (-180)
Projection 2.0539 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Completions
BB
Braylon Braxton u20.5 Completions (-115)
Projection 18.2771 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Passing Yards
BB
Braylon Braxton u269.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 219.6057 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
NM
Noah Meyers o18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 31.6894 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
JP
Jeffery Pittman o11.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 17.2394 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
EM
Elijah Metcalf u72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 65.7286 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
MH
Matthew Henry u58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 53.0362 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Receiving Yards
MB
Moussa Barry o34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 39.1654 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
WKU vs USM Consensus Picks
WKU vs USM Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
WKU vs USM Trends
Western Kentucky Trends
Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
WKU
USM
Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
WKU
USM
Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
WKU
USM
Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
Over
Under
Western Kentucky has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
WKU
USM
Western Kentucky has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 2 of their last 9 games (-6.00 Units / -58% ROI)
Over
Under
Western Kentucky has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 9 games (-3.75 Units / -37% ROI)
Over
Under
Western Kentucky has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 5 games (-3.60 Units / -63% ROI)
Western Kentucky have only covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 13 games (-2.05 Units / -13% ROI)
WKU
USM
Western Kentucky has only hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 9 games (-3.60 Units / -36% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss Trends
Southern Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
WKU
USM
Southern Miss has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Southern Miss has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 1 of their last 7 games at home (-5.90 Units / -74% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss have only covered the 1Q Spread in 2 of their last 9 games (-5.90 Units / -58% ROI)
WKU
USM
Southern Miss has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 11 games (-4.39 Units / -33% ROI)
Over
Under
Southern Miss have only covered the 1H Spread in 1 of their last 5 games (-3.65 Units / -63% ROI)
WKU
USM
Southern Miss has only hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 6 games at home (-2.50 Units / -37% ROI)
Over
Under