Boston @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 park in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Castellanos in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Nick Castellanos has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will get to bat from his good side against Cristopher Sanchez today. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Abraham Toro has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 90.6-mph. In notching a .275 batting average this year, Abraham Toro is ranked in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bryson Stott's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Richard Fitts in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Bryson Stott has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 93-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 88.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. By putting up a .335 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Masataka Yoshida is positioned in the 80th percentile for offensive skills. By putting up a .280 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Masataka Yoshida is ranked in the 91st percentile.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 park in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage against Trea Turner today. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Trea Turner has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Roman Anthony is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Roman Anthony has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Roman Anthony's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, going from 44.7% on the season to 83.3% in the last 7 days.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Carlos Narvaez will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Carlos Narvaez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph average. With a .340 BABIP this year, Carlos Narvaez is ranked in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an advantage in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Ceddanne Rafaela has compiled a .275 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 18th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

Otto Kemp's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Otto Kemp will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 16.7% on the season to 33.3% over the past week. Over the last week, Otto Kemp has displayed impressive power, recording a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage today. In the past week's worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 33.3%.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today. Max Kepler will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side this year. His .292 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326. In terms of plate discipline, Max Kepler's talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.77 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 78th percentile.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Marsh will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Richard Fitts today. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's game. Brandon Marsh has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .298 figure is deflated compared to his .325 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage today. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have an edge in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.