With what could be the final game of the MLB season, we're crossing our fingers harder than ever for the Rays.
My Brewers vs. Rays home run predictions target two Tampa Bay bats looking to keep their season alive, and a Brewer looking to leave his mark.
Before you dive in, be sure to check out all of our Brewers vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks for Game 4.
Best Brewers vs. Rays home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Christian Yelich |
12% |
 Jonathan Aranda |
9% |
| Long shot: Yandy Diaz |
9% |
| 💲 HR combo | 553.75x |
Brewers home run pick: Christian Yelich
Playable to 15%.
The pride of the Brewers since 2018 leaving his stamp on this series would be magnificent. Christian Yelich has also been making quality contact this postseason, generating a 50% hard-hit rate, an 11.5% barrel rate, and a .563 xSLG.
Griffin Jax has allowed left-handed hitters to generate a 13.3% barrel rate this postseason, along with a .330 xBA and .512 xSLG. If Yelich makes contact tonight, there's a good chance it'll be hit hard. At a 12% probability, the price is well worth the squeeze.
If you want a watered-down look, his hits, runs and RBIs Over 1.5 is also available at plus money.
Rays home run pick: Jonathan Aranda
Playable to 12%.
The highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box's default ratings is the man who was benched in Game 3, Mr. Jonathan Aranda.
The Rays first baseman boasts an elite rating while covering more than 80% of Dustin May's pitch mix. In 36 elite ratings at home over the last three seasons, Aranda has gone deep in 25% of them.
May has faced just 13 left-handed hitters this postseason, but they own a 10% barrel rate, .433 xBA and .862 xSLG. Meanwhile, Aranda owns a .510 xSLG and a 50% hard-hit rate this postseason.
It would be an all-time prove-them-wrong moment for Aranda to take one deep in an elimination game after being benched last night.
Long-shot home run pick: Yandy Diaz
Take this to 12%.
It's baffling that the most consistent bat in the Rays' lineup has just a 9% probability of going yard in an elimination game. Not only that, but Yandy Diaz owns the highest postseason barrel rate among active hitters at 17.5%. He also sports a .481 SLG, .212 ISO, and 25% line-drive rate.
The Rays slugger will likely face Dustin May, who has been a punching bag for months now. Against right-handed hitters this postseason, May is allowing a nearly 12% barrel rate, while those hitters own a .327 xBA and .537 xSLG.
According to Batters-Box, Diaz covers nearly 80% of May's arsenal. With the home team's back against the wall, the Rays will need the big fella to come through.
Brewers vs. Rays home run combo
With the season on the line and this potentially being the last chance to combo three guys to go deep, tonight is the night to do it. However, I strongly recommend playing all three straight before adding the combo. These prices are too good not to take straight.
I love all three looks tonight. Every guy is making quality contact, with Diaz owning the highest barrel rate while Yelich and Aranda have both been making plenty of hard contact.
At 553.75x odds, this is well worth sprinkling some Little Debbie money on.
- HR picks: 136-482, +24.80 units
- 2026 Picks: 569-1141, +5.00 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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