MLB Picks

Not only are the Cubbies mispriced again today, they’re facing Reds righty Chase Petty, and he has just six innings of MLB experience and hasn’t been sharp to start the season with Triple A Louisville. Petty sports a 4.38 ERA and 4.12 xFIP while allowing a 48.5% hard-hit rate across 24 2/3 minor-league innings, and Chicago enters with a league-leading .381 wOBA while averaging 6.2 runs per game during a 15-3 heater. Cubs starter Edward Cabrera has also held opposing hitters to a .231 average and .645 OPS, so it’s a tough matchup for a Cincy lineup ranking 24th in wOBA against righties.

The St. Louis Cardinals could be giving up runs from start to finish today, with Kyle Leahy sporting some of the worst BlastContact numbers in baseball, along with one of the worst HR/FB rates among all MLB starters. He’s a groundball pitcher, but when the ball gets elevated, it’s leaving the yard — and that has William Contreras written all over it. Contreras has the best BlastContact% on the Milwaukee Brewers over the last two weeks and an elite Ideal Attack Angle, ranking second in baseball at 81.4% over that span. The right-handed bat also benefits from a double-digit wind blowing out to left. Once he’s through with Leahy, he’ll get a crack at a Cardinals bullpen that has one of the worst ERAs in baseball lately.

Let's not beat around the bush – the Angels suck again. Jose Soriano's 0.84 ERA will steal some headlines, but the White Sox touched him up just last week for three earned runs and nine baserunners. On the other side, Davis Martin has emerged as one of Chicago’s biggest surprises, posting a 1.95 ERA and limited the Angels to just one earned run in that same meeting. The White Sox are also 5-1 in his starts this year. Recent form further separates these teams, with Chicago ranking 10th in OPS and seventh in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while the Angels are a brutal 25th and 30th in those categories.

It’s not every day we get +EV on a stick like Cal Raleigh, but today is the day to back a big name at value with a +390 price. This is the top +EV home-run play on the board, per Covers projections, and has a fair price of +290. Raleigh draws a strong matchup vs. JR Ritchie, who has been fortunate with a .227 BABIP and carries shaky HR/FB numbers in a small sample. His groundball rate won’t bail him out much, and Atlanta Braves starters tend to be pushed into the 90–95 pitch range even with subpar stuff. Ritchie has been tougher on righties, but all three homers he’s allowed have come off left-handed bats — and the switch-hitting Raleigh has six of his seven homers vs. RHPs. There’s some risk with Raleigh sitting out yesterday and a recent MRI, but it came back clean. He took BP on Sunday and said he’s feeling better. The bat wasn’t slowing down anyway, with five homers over his last 11 games.