It's the first full week of May, and that dinger weather is knocking on the door. There are some great spots today with a lot of +EV home run props and MLB player props. Let's dig out our favorites today on a board with some bad starters and good wind.
The Milwaukee Brewers' offense checks some boxes today in terms of its matchup, and William Contreras could benefit the most. At the same time, Cal Raleigh should draw back into the lineup and immediately contribute vs. a pitcher getting tagged by left-handed bats.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, May 4.
Best MLB home run props today
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William Contreras
Cal Raleigh
Home run pick: William Contreras (+650)
The St. Louis Cardinals could be giving up runs from start to finish today, with Kyle Leahy sporting some of the worst BlastContact numbers and HR/FB rates among MLB starters. He’s a groundball pitcher, but when the ball gets elevated, it’s leaving the yard — and that has William Contreras written all over it.
Contreras has the best BlastContact% on the Milwaukee Brewers over the last two weeks and an elite Ideal Attack Angle, ranking second in baseball at 81.4% over that span.
The right-handed bat also benefits from a double-digit wind blowing out to left. Once he’s through with Leahy, he’ll get a crack at the Cardinals' bullpen, which has one of the worst ERAs in baseball lately.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Brewers.TV
Home run pick: Cal Raleigh (+390)
It’s not every day we get +EV on a stick like Cal Raleigh, but today is the day to back a big name at value. This is the top +EV home-run play on the board, per Covers projections, and has a fair price of +290.
Raleigh draws a strong matchup vs. JR Ritchie, who has been fortunate with a .227 BABIP and carries shaky HR/FB numbers in a small sample. His ground-ball rate won’t bail him out much, and Atlanta Braves starters tend to be pushed into the 90–95 pitch range even with subpar stuff.
Ritchie has been tougher on righties, but all three homers he’s allowed have come off left-handed bats — and the switch-hitting Raleigh has six of his seven homers vs. RHPs.
There’s some risk after Raleigh sat out yesterday with right-side soreness, but a recent MRI came back clean. He took BP on Sunday and said he’s feeling better. The bat wasn’t slowing down anyway, with five homers over his last 11 games.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, BravesVision
- HR picks: 9-55, -7.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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