Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 19, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
TOR
@
CHC
Fri, Jun 19 • 2:20 PM ET
Brown is a contact pitcher who owns an 85.4% zone-contact rating, matching Guerrero’s 85.5% zone-contact rate, making this a favorable matchup for the Jays slugger. Guerrero matches up extremely well against Brown’s pitch mix, owning just an 4.8% strikeout rate against them, and has gone Under the number in eight of his 13 June games. Another Jays batter who profiles well against the Cubs starter is Nathan Lukes, who owns a .340 batting average against Brown’s pitch mix, and has recorded 1+ hit in 19 of his last 22 games since returning from the IL.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Brown, who gives up hard contact and throws a mix of curveballs and sinkers to right-handed batters at an 81% rate. Vladdy has crushed these pitch types all season, with a .392 AVG and a .468 SLG.
CHW
@
DET
Fri, Jun 19 • 6:40 PM ET
CIN
@
NYY
Fri, Jun 19 • 7:05 PM ET
u8.5 (+100)
Cam Schlittler has posted a 1.69 ERA over seven starts against teams ranking Bottom-15 in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. Only once did he concede more than a single run. The New York Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trent Grisham. Not to mention, Jazz Chisholm is nursing a groin issue. It’ll be harder for them to run up the score without them. Play to -115.
NYY -1.5 (-125)
Rhett Lowder ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, chase rate, and walk rate. The New York Yankees are third in wOBA, second in OPS, and first in BB% against right-handed pitching at home. Back the Yankees on the RL to -135.
WAS
@
TB
Fri, Jun 19 • 7:10 PM ET
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+373)
James Wood enters another strong matchup spot against Griffin Jax and the Tampa Bay Rays. Jax has struggled with contact quality, allowing high hard hit rates and consistent elevation to left handed hitters, including a 71% elevation rate at home and strong production allowed over his last 60 lefties faced with a .409 xBA, .591 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA. Wood continues to post elite results, hitting .360 with a 1.113 OPS, 50% hard hit rate, and strong barrel production over his last 30 at bats versus right handed pitching. The matchup sets up for impact and extra base upside.
James Wood o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-122)
James Wood is in a strong matchup spot against Griffin Jax and Tampa Bay, backed by both profile fit and underlying data. Wood has elite pitch coverage at 87.1% and has cleared this prop in 51.11% of tracked games with a strong 135 rating sample, per Batters-Box. His recent form is explosive, hitting .360 with a 1.113 OPS, 50% hard hit rate, and double digit barrel rate over his last 30 at bats versus righties. Jax has struggled with contact quality, especially versus left handed hitters, allowing high barrel and xwOBA marks while consistently giving up elevated contact. The numbers point toward Wood production potential.
SF
@
MIA
Fri, Jun 19 • 7:10 PM ET
The Giants are rolling along an 8-5 stretch while averaging 5.6 runs per game and ranking fourth in wOBA and ninth in xwOBA, while the Marlins rank below average in both metrics and are expected to piece together a bullpen game Friday. San Fran, on the other hand, has sneaky righty Landen Roupp set to toe the rubber. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate with his 3.37 xERA and 3.44 xFIP both top-20 marks among qualified starters. Still, he’s only fanned six or more batters in four of his past five starts, so the Under strikeouts leg is a nice odds booster for this SGP. Finally, Jung Hoo Lee sports an elite .325 batting average, and his 42.4% squared-up contact rate ranks seventh among qualified hitters.
MIL
@
ATL
Fri, Jun 19 • 7:15 PM ET
u7.5 (+101)
Misiorowski has pitched into the seventh inning or later in three consecutive starts and tossed a complete-game shutout on June 12. Atlanta's bullpen owns a 2.66 ERA over its last 23.2 innings, while Milwaukee's relievers have posted a 3.86 FIP and limited opponents to a 29.8% hard-hit rate over the last week.
MIL -1.5 (+101)
Jacob Misiorowski has been nearly untouchable, posting a 1.35 ERA and 1.68 FIP this season. Over his last two starts, the right-hander owns a microscopic 0.97 FIP and 12.69 K/9. Milwaukee's offense is also rolling, carrying a 123 wRC+ and 38.6% hard-hit rate recently.
SD
@
TEX
Fri, Jun 19 • 8:05 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: -120)
Neither San Diego or Texas have been prolific first-inning offenses this season and have respectively scored in first in just 21% and 28% of their games. Additionally, the Padres rank 27th in wOBA and 25th in xwOBA across the past 14 days, while the Rangers check in with 21st and 26th ranks. So, even with San Diego righty Randy Vasquez sporting a 4.50 ERA in the first, and Texas veteran Jacob deGrom at 6.43, I’m anticipating a scoreless opening frame given the slumping offenses they’re facing.
u7.5 (-126)
Jacob deGrom has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and owns a stellar 1.26 ERA at home, while the Padres rank 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Randy Vásquez has been excellent on the road (2.08 ERA), and Texas ranks a pathetic 29th in OPS versus righties during that same two-week span. Add in San Diego’s red-hot bullpen (2.28 ERA over the last two weeks), and runs could be tough to come by.
CLE
@
HOU
Fri, Jun 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+233)
Yordan Alvarez enters an elite matchup spot against Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland Guardians, with strong statistical and profile support. Alvarez owns a perfect 100% arsenal coverage against Bibee’s pitch mix and has historically homered at a near 22% clip in elite rating situations per Batters-Box. Bibee has struggled significantly with left handed hitters, allowing heavy contact quality and elevation, including a .460 xBA, .944 xSLG, and .461 xwOBA over his last 60 lefties faced. Alvarez’s recent form is dominant as well, posting a .444 average, 1.352 OPS, and elite barrel and hard hit rates over his last 30 plate appearances.
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-111)
Yordan Alvarez is in an excellent spot against Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee. The Astros slugger owns an elite rating in the matchup and has full arsenal coverage against Bibee's entire pitch mix. Left-handed hitters have given Bibee fits all season, posting a .460 xBA, .944 xSLG, and .461 xwOBA over his last 60 lefties faced, while consistently generating hard contact and barrels. Meanwhile, Alvarez continues to swing one of the hottest bats in baseball, hitting .444 with a .852 SLG and 1.352 OPS against right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances. The value is simply too good to ignore.
STL
@
KC
Fri, Jun 19 • 8:15 PM ET
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+422)
Alec Burleson opens the weekend in a strong matchup against Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals. Burleson carries an elite Batters-Box rating this season and has consistently produced in strongly rated spots, homering in 20% and doubling in 25% of 40 tracked games. His recent form is excellent, posting a .357 average, .964 slugging, and 1.364 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances versus right handed pitching, along with strong hard hit and barrel rates. Lugo has struggled with left handed hitters, allowing high elevation and elite production quality over his last 60 faced, including elevated xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA marks.
Cardinals righty Michael McGreevy has surrendered two runs or fewer in 10 of 14 starts this season while ranking in the 93rd percentile of fastball run value and the 96th percentile in offspeed run value. He’ll also likely face the Royals without superstar Bobby Witt Jr. (knee). The Cards are rolling at the dish, boasting a top-ranked xwOBA while averaging 5.8 runs per game over the past two weeks. Additionally, this matchup serves as a prime bounce-back spot for go-to hitter Ivan Herrera. He is currently mired in a 1-for-16 slump across his past five games after posting a sterling .371 wOBA and .372 xwOBA to start the season. Finally, I anticipate the Royals will be off-balance against McGreevy without Witt anchoring their offense. Because the shortstop paces the majors in WAR.
PIT
@
COL
Fri, Jun 19 • 8:40 PM ET
LAA
@
ATH
Fri, Jun 19 • 9:40 PM ET
MIN
@
AZ
Fri, Jun 19 • 9:45 PM ET
o8.5 (-115)
The Arizona Diamondbacks possess a highly productive offense against left-handed pitching, especially at home. They rank fifth in wOBA and third in ISO vs. lefties in Arizona. The Minnesota Twins should produce as well. Michael Soroka ranks in the 48th percentile in xBA so he’s not exactly untouchable. Play to -125.
AZ (-170)
Connor Prielipp ranks in the 25th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and struggles against right-handed hitters. That is far from ideal going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who excel against lefties and project to have seven or eight batters hit from the right-side on Friday night. Back Arizona to -190.
BOS
@
SEA
Fri, Jun 19 • 10:10 PM ET
BAL
@
LAD
Fri, Jun 19 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodgers righty Roki Sasaki sports a tidy 3.26 ERA at home, supported by an equally impressive 3.41 xFIP. The Orioles, on the flip side, haven’t traveled well with a 22nd-ranked road wOBA. Sasaki has also allowed just five hits across his past two home starts, and he’s surrendered four or fewer in four of his past five. Turning to Baltimore rookie Trey Gibson, he brings a lackluster 6.62 xERA and 5.19 xFIP against a lineup pacing the majors in xwOBA across the past 30 days. Finally, Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy hits in the heart of the potent lineup and has posted an impressive .387 wOBA, .906 OPS, and .252 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past three years.
o9.5 (+101)
Baltimore's bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball lately, posting a 7.78 FIP and 46.9% hard-hit rate over the last week. The Orioles have also generated a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 105 wRC+ over the last two weeks, giving both teams paths to offense.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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