Situational angles abound as the New York Yankees look to sweep the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
It’s a getaway game for the Orioles, who have been blown out in back-to-back games by the Yankees, making me curious about their interest in this one. They also face a Cy Young frontrunner on the mound, signaling clear value towards the Yankees.
Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Monday, May 4.
Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (-115)
I’ll continue to back Cam Schlittler on the mound, and I won’t pass up the chance to get a solid price while doing it. We will see some regression from the young arm at some point after this otherworldly start.
However, the Baltimore Orioles aren't demonstrating the profile to provide that regression.
With the Orioles owning a 30%+ chase rate, Schlittler’s elite profile should play well. His 98th-percentile chase rate paired with one of the best heaters in baseball is built for a matchup like this.
I like Shane Baz enough on the other side, but patient teams like the Guardians, who scored four earned runs against him, tend to grind him down. Facing a depleted road team on a getaway day with the clear pitching advantage makes this a nice spot.
COVERS INTEL: Baz's breaking ball grades out in the Bottom 6th percentile of baseball, and his offspeed in the bottom 29th.
Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
I lean Over but don’t see a huge edge here. This depends almost entirely on what the Yankees do, as there's a good chance we see another six-inning Schlittler appearance, where he allows just one earned run or none.
Baz lacks a worthwhile secondary pitch, and his primary pitch is the fastball.
It’s a problem that plenty of opposing pitchers run into when facing the Yankees; their offspeed stuff lacks command or quality, and suddenly they're grooving fastballs in the zone.
That’s an issue vs. this Yankees lineup for the variety of reasons, most notably their top-ranked barrel rate against the fastball in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
It's also unlikely that Baltimore will use premium bullpen arms in this spot, which would allow New York to run it up.
- ML/RL bets: 13-10, +2.62 units
- Over/Under bets: 15-9, +6.72 units
Orioles vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Orioles +158 | Yankees -188
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+116)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 home games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, May 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Shane Baz (1-2, 4.50 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (4-1, 1.51 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
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