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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 11, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
+166 
|
o8.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
5.04 |
-190
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +120
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+160 
|
o8.0 -114 
|
+1.5 -137 
|
|
4.68 |
-182
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +126
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-1 in Tigers last 7 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+132
|
o8.0 -113
|
+1.5 -160 
|
|
4.41 |
-148
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 starts as an underdog.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Cavallis last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+120
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.74 |
-134
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-2 in McLeans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
+108
|
o8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.66 |
-125
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +165
|
Baltimore
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Bassitts last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 road starts.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Blue Jays last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+146
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -149
|
|
4.61 |
-167
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +130
|
Houston
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
Miguel Ullola o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-209
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.27 |
+180
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Gustos last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+193
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+176
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -118
|
|
4.93 |
-195
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +110
|
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+214)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+160
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.90 |
-190
|
u7.5 -106
|
-1.5 +120
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Sales last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+258)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+160
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -137
|
|
4.52 |
-185
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +125
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Harrisons last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 8-2 in Harrisons last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+289
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-120
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.12 |
+105
|
u7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -164
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
-110
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.70 |
-104
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.98 |
+112
|
o8.5 -150
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.74 |
-130
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +165
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
o1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-165
|
o9.5 -130
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.09 |
+146
|
u10.5 -120
|
+1.5 -108
|
Seattle
- Over is 7-2-1 in Mariners last 10 overall.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Mariners last 14 vs. American League West.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Mariners last 22 on grass.
- Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
o0.5+700
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.64 |
+125
|
u8.5 -132
|
+1.5 -135
|
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
San Francisco
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+169
PIT
@
CHC
Fri, Sep 11 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Hits
Michael Conforto u0.5 Total Hits (+105)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.. 32% of the time that Michael Conforto has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Michael Conforto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences today.. Michael Conforto's launch angle recently (-0.7° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit lower than his 17.1° seasonal figure.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Over the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.1% up to 20%.. Bryan Reynolds has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph EV.
COL
@
DET
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as Major League Baseball's 12th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hunter Goodman will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.
Total RBIs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+137)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Riley Greene will have an edge in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Riley Greene will hold that advantage in today's game.
LAA
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest right field fences among all major league parks.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and James Wood will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
MB
Moises Ballesteros u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Moises Ballesteros has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 33% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Moises Ballesteros today.. In the past two weeks, Moises Ballesteros's 3.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.. This year, there has been a decline in Moises Ballesteros's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.96 ft/sec last year to 25.13 ft/sec currently.
NYM
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+256)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #9 park in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Austin Wells will have the upper hand in today's game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Austin Wells stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Austin Wells pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 5th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #9 park in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Bo Bichette will have an edge in today's game.
BAL
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+164)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Coby Mayo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coby Mayo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best park in the game for right-handed home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. In the last 7 days, Coby Mayo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13% up to 18.2%.
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best stadium in the game for LHB home runs.. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer today.. Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
HOU
@
TB
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Junior Caminero tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Miguel Ullola.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Isaac Paredes o0.5 Total RBIs (+242)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the league for righty home runs.. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 24.3°, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 35.2° figure in the last two weeks.. Posting a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Isaac Paredes has performed in the 84th percentile.
LAD
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Mookie Betts is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Mookie Betts has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mookie Betts's true offensive talent to be a .337, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .022 deviation between that figure and his actual .315 wOBA.
Strikeouts Thrown
Ryan Gusto o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110)
Projection 4.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Ryan Gusto will hold that advantage today.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.1% more often this year (59.4%) than he did last year (48.3%).. Ryan Gusto's 2404-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.
KC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
BOS -1.5 (+112)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 22.2%.
PHI
@
ATL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.
Total RBIs
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+258)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.
CIN
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Projection 0.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the game's 19th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The 6th-shallowest CF fences in the majors are found in American Family Field.. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Eugenio Suarez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+167)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the game's 19th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-shallowest CF fences in the majors are found in American Family Field.. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.
CLE
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+164)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
CHW
@
STL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Miguel Vargas will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs
Brenton Doyle o0.5 Total RBIs (+259)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brenton Doyle's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Brenton Doyle will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's game.. Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
TEX
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Corey Seager will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Corey Seager o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150)
Projection 2.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Corey Seager will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
SEA
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Sutter Health Park projects as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.
SD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 11 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 18th-best hitter in MLB.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Anthony Molina in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
