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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 11, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
+155 
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
5.04 |
-175 
|
u8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +122 
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+160 
|
o8.0 -114 
|
+1.5 -136 
|
|
4.68 |
-188
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +125
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-1 in Tigers last 7 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+133
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.41 |
-150
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +140
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 starts as an underdog.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Cavallis last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+120
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.74 |
-135
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-2 in McLeans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+287)
o0.5+287
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
+108
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.66 |
-125
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
Baltimore
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Bassitts last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 road starts.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Blue Jays last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+148
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.61 |
-170
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +130
|
Houston
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-208
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.27 |
+190
|
u7.5 +100
|
+1.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Gustos last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+175
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.93 |
-190 
|
u8.5 -106
|
-1.5 +116
|
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
o0.5+193
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+164
|
o7.5 -109
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.90 |
-180
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +125
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Sales last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)
o1.5+110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+160
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.52 |
-185
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +122
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Harrisons last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 8-2 in Harrisons last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+277)
o0.5+285
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-120
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.12 |
+105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -165
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
-110
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.70 |
-104
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.98 |
+112
|
o9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.74 |
-125
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-160
|
o10.0 -110
|
-1.5 -103
|
|
5.09 |
+150
|
u10.5 -115
|
+1.5 -102
|
Seattle
- Over is 7-2-1 in Mariners last 10 overall.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Mariners last 14 vs. American League West.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Mariners last 22 on grass.
- Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
o0.5+800
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-140
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.64 |
+125
|
u8.0 -109
|
+1.5 -135
|
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
San Francisco
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
COL
@
DET
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as Major League Baseball's 12th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hunter Goodman will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.
Total Hits
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Colt Keith has been pinch hit for 49% of the time.. The #5 field in the game for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Colt Keith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Over the past two weeks, Colt Keith's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 91.6 mph to 80.1 mph.
LAA
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Hits
Andres Chaparro u0.5 Total Hits (+145)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andres Chaparro's BABIP ability is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. 71% of the time that Andres Chaparro has started against a southpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the worst park in baseball for RHB BABIP.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. In the last two weeks, Andres Chaparro's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 0%.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Cavalli who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mike Trout has had some very poor luck given the .016 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .364.
NYM
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+129)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #9 park in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Carlos Rodon.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #9 park in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's matchup.
BAL
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best stadium in the game for LHB home runs.. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer today.. Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Leody Taveras o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best stadium in the game for LHB home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Max Scherzer.. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph average.
HOU
@
TB
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+149)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the league for righty home runs.. Jeremy Pena pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 41.7% to 47.2%.
Total Home Runs
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 78th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Tropicana Field ranks as the #3 stadium in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today.. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
KC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
BOS -1.5 (+112)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. In the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 17.6%.
PHI
@
ATL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Trea Turner o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.. Because of Chris Sale's huge platoon split, J.T. Realmuto will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.
CIN
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Gary Sanchez u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Gary Sanchez's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This year, Gary Sanchez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.. Gary Sanchez has been lucky this year, putting up a .346 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .030 difference.
Total RBIs
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+172)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
CLE
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.. Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jo Adell has had bad variance on his side given the .023 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+234)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
CHW
@
STL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Miguel Vargas will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Considering Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Ivan Herrera will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.
SEA
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Dominic Canzone o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dominic Canzone is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park projects as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.
SD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 11 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Anthony Molina in today's game.
Total RBIs
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Manny Machado has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last 7 days.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
