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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 12, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.38 |
+148 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -137
|
|
5.01 |
-170
|
u8.5 -104
|
-1.5 +132 
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rockies last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Gordons last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Gordons last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
o1.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.93 |
+160
|
o8.0 -113 
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
4.92 |
-174
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +125 
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Mets last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Coles last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.21 |
+105
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
5.37 |
-122
|
u9.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +165
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Pirates last 8 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Holmes' last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+550)
o0.5+550
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-105
|
o8.0 -124
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.49 |
-104
|
u8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -170
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0-1 in Bradishs last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Bradishs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as a road underdog.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+199
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-155
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +110 
|
|
3.88 |
+136
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -120
|
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kings last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Kings last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.74 |
+100
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.48 |
-115
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Urenas last 5 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Urenas last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jose Siri u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
u0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
-190
|
o7.5 -118
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
3.80 |
+165
|
u8.0 -118
|
+1.5 -108
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Miami
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Griffin Conine o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
-108
|
o8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.34 |
-108
|
u9.0 -118
|
-1.5 +150
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-135)
o1.5-130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.73 |
+160
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.53 |
-186
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Dobnaks last 5 starts overall.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 home starts.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Randy Dobnak u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
u5.5-800
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
+125
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.65 |
-144
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
+155
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.08 |
-170
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +116
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0-1 in Singers last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Singers last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 road starts.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-102
|
o7.0 -215
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.66 |
-115
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 +190
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Leahys last 8 home starts.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o1.5 Total RBIs (+700)
o1.5+700
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+110
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.04 |
-115 
|
u7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -189
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in Luzardos last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Luzardos last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Atlanta
- Under is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Braves are 4-1 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
+124
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -166
|
|
4.83 |
-140
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 overall.
Top Projection
Kumar Rocker u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
u3.5+118
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.80 |
-170
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
4.74 |
+152
|
u10.5 -160
|
+1.5 +100
|
Seattle
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Jumps last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total RBIs (+525)
o0.5+185
COL
@
DET
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
Projection 1.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Sears throws from, Ezequiel Tovar will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ezequiel Tovar's true offensive skill to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .034 deviation between that mark and his actual .259 wOBA.. Posting a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ezequiel Tovar finds himself in the 77th percentile.
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as MLB's 13th-best home run hitter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Among all parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Sears throws from, Hunter Goodman will have the upper hand in today's game.
NYM
@
NYY
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
PIT
@
CHC
Sat, Sep 12 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Bases
Henry Davis o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.8-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Henry Davis has been unlucky this year, notching a .258 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .052 gap.
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Ian Happ is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.8-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
BAL
@
TOR
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Rogers Centre has the 8th-highest average fence height among all stadiums.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among all the teams today.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Holliday in today's game.. Jackson Holliday's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) has been 105.8 mph this year, checking in at the 1st percentile.. Jackson Holliday has posted a .289 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 16th percentile.
Total RBIs
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 stadium in the majors for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. George Springer will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
SD
@
SF
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Bryce Eldridge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 19-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.. Bryce Eldridge will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 19-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Cronenworth's true offensive skill to be a .303, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 deviation between that mark and his actual .265 wOBA.
LAA
@
WAS
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Jose Siri u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the worst stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Siri today.. Jose Siri has put up a .204 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 6th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Jose Siri has compiled a .092 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Hits
Kyren Paris u0.5 Total Hits (+105)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyren Paris's batting average skill is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyren Paris is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the worst stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. Kyren Paris will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
LAD
@
MIA
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Griffin Conine o1.5 Total RBIs (+800)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Griffin Conine ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Griffin Conine is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Griffin Conine will have the upper hand today.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Griffin Conine will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Kyle Stowers o1.5 Total RBIs (+800)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Kyle Stowers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Glasnow today.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Kyle Stowers will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
CLE
@
MIN
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-120)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Gavin Williams and Bailey Ober offer an even starting duel, but Cleveland possesses baseball's most dominant active bullpen (2.83 SIERA, 5.9% walk rate over the last 14 days). In a tight matchup, I trust Cleveland's late-inning shutdown arms with the better bats to secure the win.
Strikeouts Thrown
Connor Prielipp o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Projection 4.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Connor Prielipp in the 82nd percentile among all starters in the league.. The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Petey Halpin, Patrick Bailey, David Fry).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today.. Connor Prielipp will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats in all categories.. Connor Prielipp's 95-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 77th percentile among all starting pitchers.
KC
@
BOS
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total RBIs (+197)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mickey Gasper ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mickey Gasper is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's RF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Mickey Gasper will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.
Strikeouts Thrown
Randy Dobnak u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
Projection 2.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Randy Dobnak in the 1st percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.. Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Randy Dobnak is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate.. The #5 stadium in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Randy Dobnak will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.
HOU
@
TB
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the league for left-handed home runs.. Tropicana Field has the 4th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums.. Utilizing Statcast data, Yordan Alvarez grades out in the 98th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .384.
Total RBIs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the league for left-handed home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Peter Lambert throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
CHW
@
STL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
CHW (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Total RBIs
JB
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Joshua Baez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Joshua Baez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 90°.. Joshua Baez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
PHI
@
ATL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Alec Bohm o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Alec Bohm is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Ozzie Albies o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #4 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Jesús Luzardo... and even better, Luzardo has a huge platoon split.
TEX
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 12 • 8:10 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (+125)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Total Bases
Brandon Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Chase Field profiles as the #3 field in the majors for overall lefty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.
SEA
@
ATH
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.1
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The #3 stadium in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Among all major league parks, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the hottest weather of all games today at 93°.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 14th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #3 stadium in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Among all major league parks, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the hottest weather of all games today at 93°.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
