MLB Picks

After finishing fourth in the AL MVP race in 2024, Gunnar Henderson had a bit of a down year in 2025. However, he's hitting the ball well again and has a great matchup today. Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile in overall offensive talent according to THE BAT X, and he's slugging .691 over the last two weeks. He'll have the platoon advantage at home against Arizona starter Merril Kelly and there's a 13 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Kelly is making his season debut after dealing with a back ailment and he logged a 4.16 xERA in 32 starts last year. The D-Backs have one of the worst bullpens in the majors behind him.

Pete Alonso crushed a home run on Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and a fan in a Polar Bear costume caught it—if that’s not a sign to run it back on Tuesday, I don’t know what is. Alonso is listed at +427 to hit a home run, but I make the fair price closer to +350. The weather at Camden Yards is also favorable, with the wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph and temperatures expected to be in the high 80s—ideal conditions for power hitting. If you’re into BvP, you’ll also like that Alonso has three home runs in 19 career at-bats against Merrill Kelly.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for HRs.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for HRs.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup.

Let's keep on keeping on with the Tigers here. They are coming off a sweep of the Marlins and now get to face Cole Ragans, who is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA. Detroit will have the edge on the bump with Framber Valdez, and with the offense finally clicking, a short home favorite seems the right play. 

Jahmai Jones is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Jahmai Jones has been pinch hit for 59% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park's CF fences are the 2nd-deepest.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense grades out as the best out of every team today.

Cincinnati righty Brady Singer has been awful this season, pitching to a 7.71 ERA through three starts. That said, the veteran had a 3.96 FIP in 64 starts over the last two years so expect positive regression. Especially since he faces a San Fran lineup that is 29th in the majors in runs per game (3.19) and 28th in OBP (.288). The Giants will have southpaw Robbie Ray and his 2.08 ERA on the mound. The veteran has great swing-and-miss stuff and Cincinnati ranks 28th in runs per game (3.38) and 29th in OPA (.623).

When it comes to his home run skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #1 field in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The 7th-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.. This matchup is projected to have the 6th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

When I go square, I want all the checkmarks, and I’m getting them in this Pittsburgh Pirates spot. Oneil Cruz is a Top-5 hitter in baseball in swing speed and leads all batters in Blast Contact%, a stat that combines fast swings with barrels. Swing hard and square it up — simple. Cruz gets a heavenly matchup vs. Miles Mikolas, who might be looking for a new job soon. Mikolas has been getting lit up, allowing 19 runs in just over 12 innings with five home runs surrendered. He’s unlikely to go deep, and Pittsburgh should also get cracks at a taxed Washington Nationals bullpen after hanging 16 runs on them last night. There might be four arms unavailable today from that Washington pen. Elite form, double-digit winds blowing out, a great matchup, and a depleted bullpen all point to upside. I’m willing to go a bit shorter here at +330 and would still play it down to +300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP ability.. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.

Reid Detmers 2.53 xERA ranks in the Top 15% of baseball through three starts, and that’s just a massive gap compared to Yankees hurler Ryan Weathers' 5.12 xERA (Bottom 25th percentile). This is effectively the difference between a top-third starter and a guy who is a bridge to the rest of the rotation being healthy. 

Mike Trout, Zach Neto, and Jo Adell have all had good success against Weathers historically. All three have over 40 plate appearances against him, and all three have posted a Top 20% wOBA against him over that sample. If that trio has success, we can roughly estimate the Angels scoring 4-5 runs. That should be enough. Although Detmers' chase creation gives him an edge, his fastball-heavy approach also makes him a candidate to give up runs against the best fastball-hitting team in baseball YTD.

Drake Baldwin won the NL Rookie of the Year Award last year, and he's been even better this season. Baldwin ranks in the 95th percentile in xSLG (.586) and the 88th percentile in barrel rate. He leads the Braves with 17 RBI, and he has driven in a run in nine of his last 14 games. He'll have the platoon advantage at home against Marlins righty Max Meyer tonight. Meyer has a 3.68 ERA though three starts but his xERA is significantly wworse at 5.42. Meyer had a 4.73 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in 12 starts last year and he was particularly bad on the road. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. The #9 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.2) provides evidence that Heriberto Hernandez has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 17.4 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the game's 10th-best home run hitter.. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. Target Field projects as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Target Field projects as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among every team today.. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 91.4-mph.. Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 21.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Varsho has handled fastballs extremely well to begin the season, and Misiorowski has shown a tendency to give up hard contact when he utilizes the heater. That could set up the Jays outfielder for his third home run in four games.

Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski sits around 98 mph on his four-seamer, which he uses at a 62% rate. Despite the early-season struggles, the Toronto Blue Jays have fared well against the fastball and should match up well against the youngster. Daulton Varsho leads the Blue Jays in hits against the four-seamer with a .365 average and a 60% hard-hit rate. Varsho has recorded a knock in four straight games while batting .412 over that span.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #5 ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

Let’s call it what it is—this price is simply too good to pass up on one of the premier hitters in MLB, especially in a ballpark that favors power given Tuesday’s weather forecast. José Ramírez is listed at +551 to hit a home run on Tuesday, but I make it closer to +435, which creates a clear edge and makes this a bet worth attacking. He also looked comfortable at the plate in this park on Monday, going 2-for-4 with a walk—an encouraging sign that he’s seeing the ball well. On the mound, Michael McGreevy may be off to a solid start, but his underlying splits are a concern. Left-handed hitters tagged him for a .318 average with nine home runs in just 173 at-bats last season, which sets up well for Ramírez in this matchup.

McGreevy's underlying metrics suggest Cleveland will score, while Cantillo's command issues against a right-handed heavy lineup and gusty winds blowing out mean a few free passes could turn into a run explosion in a hurry. Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine. The Cardinals' pen can't miss bats. Play the Over. 

 

The Rockies are checking some home run boxes in tonight’s matchup with the Astros. Houston is dealing with injuries to its rotation, which brings in Triple-A lefty Colton Gordon. That also opens the door to a vulnerable bullpen, as the Astros are one of just two teams with a HR/9 north of 2.00. Goodman is the target in this solid indoor matchup. He’s one of the few hitters with familiarity against Gordon and has already taken him deep in just two plate appearances. He also hits lefties much better. Goodman brings legit power metrics, with one of the fastest swings in baseball at 79 mph, ranking 19th this season. The fair price sits in the +340 to +350 range, giving this +410 number clear value.

After an injury-plagued campaign in 2025, Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing like an MVP candidate once again. He's fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.714) and his expected slugging percentage is even higher at an incredible .821. He'll have the platoon advantage against struggling Rockies starter Michael Lorenzon tonight. Lorenzon has an ugly 6.09 xERA through three starts and is in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile in xBA (.323). Alvarez will also benefit from the 15 mph blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Michael King today.. Luke Raley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Luke Raley has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 96.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 20th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jackson Merrill will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

This matchup features two left-handed starters against lineups that have been awful vs southpaws, ranking 26th and 27th in OPS. MacKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.45 ERA) and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA. Jeffrey Springs has been even better, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, highlighted by a one-hit gem over seven innings at Yankee Stadium his last time out. Oakland is always an Under candidate as they've already scored one run or fewer six times, including each of their last two.

 

Sam Haggerty is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. 23% of the time that Sam Haggerty has started against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF fences in the league.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.. The Athletics outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest among every team on the slate today.

Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium is easily the marquee matchup of the night, and I’m backing the Mets in what could very well be an NLCS preview. The Mets are listed at +181 on Pinnacle, but I make them closer to +130, so there’s clear value at this price. While the Dodgers lineup—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy—typically thrives against right-handed pitching, that edge diminishes against elite arms. McLean fits that profile with his high-end stuff and impressive spin rates. He has the ability to neutralize left-handed power by burying back-foot sliders and mixing in his curveball to keep hitters off balance, which should help limit hard contact and suppress their power upside.

A team with Nolan McLean as their starting pitcher shouldn’t be priced at +186. 

The 24-year-old has a 2.23 ERA across 11 starts in the Big Leagues and has flashed elite stuff this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity. 

The offense could reasonably plate several runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to ramp up to “elite mode” with a pedestrian 3.62 xERA and 20.9% K rate in three starts.