MLB Picks

This is a massive number with the Angels sending their best pitcher to the mound. THE BAT is projecting a fair price of -167, making this Under one of the best +EV sides or totals on the board this morning. My favorite angle on this Under — and why I have zero interest in the Orioles while also liking the Angels moneyline and Baltimore team total Under 4.5 — is the travel spot. The Orioles are wrapping up a West Coast trip that included stops in Seattle and Los Angeles. Following today's matinee, Baltimore heads home for the first time in nine days, meaning this club has been on the road for nine straight days without a break. If there is a spot on the schedule to mail one in, this is it. This series hasn't seen both teams score two runs in the same game yet, and Baltimore is 2-6 O/U on this road trip. They'll also be rolling out an afternoon lineup in a getaway-day situation.

Ryan Weathers has allowed at least five runs in four of his past six starts, conceding 10 homers along the way. The Detroit Tigers rank 15th in ISO against left-handed pitching so they have enough power to cause problems for Weathers. With Tarik Skubal on the mound, the Tigers are worth backing to -150.

Luis Garcia has gone deep in each game of this series against the Phillies, which has already produced five homers last night and three more in the opener. Home runs have accounted for 15 total runs through the first two games. Three of Garcia's last four hits have left the yard. He is locked in right now and gets another great matchup and setting today. There is a slight wind blowing out to right field again, which has helped the left-handed bats throughout this series. Aaron Nola still looks like he's searching for answers. He owns the 28th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days and has allowed multiple home runs in back-to-back starts. His HR/9 is worse on the road, and left-handed hitters have tagged him for a .909 OPS. Everything lines up for Garcia to stay hot.

Rhett Lowder draws a difficult matchup against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that has consistently shown patience at the plate. The Brewers own the second highest road walk rate in baseball this season and lead the league with a 10.7% walk rate over their last 21 games. They also feature several hitters with strong recent walk profiles against right handed pitching. Lowder's command has been a concern throughout the year, as he has issued walks at nearly a 20% clip over his last five outings and 15.15% across his last three starts. If Milwaukee remains disciplined, there should be opportunities to reach base early and often.

Shohei Ohtani enters in dominant form with a 3.14 FIP across his last 24.2 innings and a 1.23 road ERA. Joe Ryan's recent hard-contact issues create concern against a Dodgers lineup that continues to thrive away from home and generate quality offensive production.

I am already fading Matthew Liberatore this evening by backing Ketel Marte, and the strikeout under also stands out in this matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks do not feature a single hitter above league average in strikeout rate per Batters-Box, giving Liberatore a difficult environment to work through. He also draws one of the weakest opponent strikeout profiles on the slate. The under 3.5 strikeouts is in play given his underlying trends, with unders at this range landing only about 30% over a 30 game sample. Arizona has kept strikeouts low across multiple recent stretches and continues to show a strong contact profile against left handed pitching.

JP Sears posted a 5.04 ERA last season while allowing 1.99 homers per nine innings.

That's a recipe for disaster against the Atlanta Braves, who rank third in home runs, eighth in SLG, and ninth in ISO when facing left-handed pitching. 

It'll be difficult for a putrid San Diego Padres offense to keep up. 

Back Atlanta to -150.

Nick Kurtz draws a strong matchup against Tyler Mahle and enters in peak form. Kurtz carries elite Batters-Box ratings with full arsenal coverage in this spot and has historically cleared this prop at a near 71% rate in similar road profiles, including a 25% home run clip. Mahle relies heavily on his fastball and has struggled with hard contact, particularly against left-handed hitters who have produced elevated launch rates and a .505 expected slugging over his recent sample. Kurtz’s current form is strong, posting elite contact metrics and impact production over his last stretch versus right-handed pitching. 

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.