Houston Astros starter Mike Burrows should be in for a tough day against the pesky Toronto Blue Jays batters, who profile well against him, making Over 2.5 runs allowed my favorite play of the day.
Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Wednesday, June 24 matchup.
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Mike Burrows Over 2.5 earned runs (-150)
The Toronto Blue Jays' offense is turning a corner, averaging 4.6 runs per game with a 113 WRC+ over their last 10 games.
They also profile well against Mike Burrows, who throws a heavy dose of the four-seamer, with the changeup as his main secondary pitch. The Houston Astros' hurler owns a 5.89 ERA this season, allowing 4.3 runs per game over his last six full starts.
Toronto handles his pitch mix well with a league-leading .263 average against the four-seamer and changeup with a .440 slug rate.
The Jays have seen a power uptick lately as well, with 15 home runs over their last 10 games, which is a big reason why they’ve been able to score more runs lately.
I’d bet this to -160.
COVERS INTEL: Burrows gives up a lot of contact, ranking in the 22nd percentile in xBA, and decently hard contact with a high air-ball and line drive rate. 
Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kazuma Okamoto has a hit in four of his last five games and profiles well against Burrows’ pitch mix, owning a .346 average against them since June 1. He’s recorded at least one hit in 14 of 19 games this month.
The Astros own a 32% strikeout rate against the splitter with a 38% whiff rate. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage uses the splitter as his out-pitch and generates a 40% whiff rate on it.
Astros vs Blue Jays SGP
- Mike Burrows Over 2.5 earned runs
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
- Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+265)
Okamoto profiles well against Burrows, who’s a contact pitcher that gets barreled up at a 9.1% rate and ranks in the 54th percentile in hard-hit rate
The Jays slugger barrels the ball better than any other Blue Jays and makes hard contact with a .300 average and a 56.8% hard-hit rate against Burrows’ top pitches.
Additionally, Burrows has surrendered 18 home runs through 14 starts this season, including at least one in eight of his last 10 outings.
Despite the favorable matchup, I’ll make this a half-unit wager due to the volatility of the home run market.
- Best bets: 36-40, +1.15 units
- SGPs: 14-62, +0.15 units
- HR picks: 13-63, +2.4 units
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | Toronto -140
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-160) | Toronto -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the first five innings (F5) run line in seven of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-24-2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, SN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (3-8, 5.79 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.76 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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