Nothing like taking a few of my favorite MLB picks from tonight's slate and tossing them into a little Silly Goose Parlay. That is what SGP stands for, right?
Either way, I found a few spots worth bundling together, so here are my favorite MLB SGP picks for Wednesday night's action.
Today's best MLB SGP picks
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Diamondbacks vs Cardinals SGP: +220
Ketel Marte enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, and when carrying that designation, he records a hit 72% of the time across a 133-game sample.
The Arizona second baseman has also been crushing left-handed pitching lately, posting a .680 SLG and 1.047 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws while generating a 65% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.
As for Matthew Liberatore, the matchup is far from ideal. The Arizona Diamondbacks do not feature a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate per Batters-Box, and Liberatore draws one of the weakest strikeout environments on the slate.
Arizona has maintained a strikeout rate below 18% over its last six, 12, and 21-game samples. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Diamondbacks own an absurdly low 7.8% strikeout rate, making life difficult for any pitcher relying on punchouts.
On top of that, Liberatore has also been getting tagged by right-handed hitters, with the last 60 he has faced producing a 49% hard hit rate, an 18.6% barrel rate, and a 62.8% elevation rate. Those hitters are sitting at a .357 xBA, a .671 xSLG, and a .427 xwOBA in that span.
I think the Diamondback come out on top here.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
Athletics vs Giants SGP: +206
Off the rip, getting Nick Kurtz to record a hit at better than -200 with 100% arsenal coverage against Tyler Mahle feels like a gift. Not to mention Shea Langeliers owns 82% arsenal coverage as well.
Both carry elite ratings on Batters-Box this evening and have produced strong results in those spots, recording a hit in roughly 70% of their elite-rated matchups.
With Mahle relying on his fastball nearly 50% of the time, this pitch mix should have Athletics hitters salivating. Even more concerning, roughly half of his arsenal grades below league average.
Add in four elite-rated hitters on the Oakland side, and I think the red-hot Athletics are in a great position to get after the struggling right-hander, who enters tonight with poorly rated wOBA, ISO, and hard contact metrics.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSBA, NBCSCA
Brewers vs Reds SGP: +310
Both Brice Turang and Jake Bauers find themselves with elite ratings in the current season dataset on Batters-Box, where they own at least a 68% arsenal coverage against Rhett Lowder.
The Reds right hander has been allowing a 60% elevation rate to lefties at home. Over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, he has allowed a 40% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 65% elevation rate, while also carrying a .311 xBA, .627 xSLG, and .397 xwOBA in that split.
On top of that, the Milwaukee Brewers continue to be one of the most patient offenses in baseball, making this a difficult matchup for Lowder. Milwaukee owns the second highest road walk rate in the league this season and leads all teams with a 10.7% walk rate over its last 21 games.
The lineup also features several hitters with strong recent on-base profiles against right-handed pitching. Lowder's command has been inconsistent throughout the year, as he has issued walks at nearly a 20% rate across his last five outings.
Even with better numbers at home, recent trends suggest free passes could once again become an issue.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, CINR
- SGP picks: 236-436-36, -7.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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