Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
SD
@
PHI
Thu, Jun 4 • 1:05 PM ET
Both Lucas Giolito and Zack Wheeler were victimized by the longball in their latest starts, and the ball could be zipping around the yard in hot-and-sunny Philly on Thursday afternoon. Look for Gavin Sheets and Kyle Schwarber to contribute to the Over in this getaway game.
CLE
@
NYY
Thu, Jun 4 • 1:35 PM ET
u8.5 (-104)
Rodon is making his fifth start of the year after missing the start with an injury. He's in the top 10% in MLB in avoiding hard-hit balls and inducing grounders. Prior to the offensive explosion against New York in this series, the Guardians had gone 12 straight games scoring fewer than five runs. Slade Cecconi has allowed three runs or fewer in the last five starts, with the Guardians winning four of them.
CLE (+142)
Aaron Judge will miss his third straight game, and the Yankees aren't the same team without him. In the last five games without Judge, dating to last year, New York is 1-4, .200 without Judge, and averages 3.6 runs a game, compared to 5.2 runs and a .586 win percentage with him. The Guardians have scored 14 runs in the first two games, with Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo destroying Yankee pitching. The pair is 11-for-17 in the series with 6 RBIs, 5 doubles, and 2 homers.
BAL
@
BOS
Thu, Jun 4 • 1:35 PM ET
u10.5 (-118)
Boston is hitting .285 over the last two weeks, but the power hasn't followed, evidenced by a .159 ISO and sub-40% hard-hit rate. Baltimore also owns a modest .160 ISO over the last seven days, suggesting neither lineup enters this matchup with elite run-producing indicators.
BOS (-115)
Boston gets a favorable matchup against Trevor Rogers, who owns a 4.82 xFIP this season and a 6.26 xERA across his last two starts. Meanwhile, Brayan Bello has quietly turned a corner, posting a 1.68 FIP over his last 12 innings while consistently limiting dangerous contact.
SF
@
MIL
Thu, Jun 4 • 2:10 PM ET
TOR
@
ATL
Thu, Jun 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+405)
Sale keeps the ball in the yard, so we’ll make this just a half-unit wager. However, if there’s one, Bluejays, who profiles well enough to do damage tonight, it be Okamoto. Okamoto owns a .400 average with a 65% hard hit rate against the four-seamer/slider combination, which has a 80% usage rate with those pitches. Additionally, he’s one of the only Bluejays hitting with Power on a consistent basis, ranking in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, which has led to a team lead leading 13 home runs in 2026.
Kazuma Okamoto has never faced Sale, but profiles well against him. Okamoto crushes the fastball and slider off LHP, owning a .400 average against them with a .667 xSLG. I’ll add Over 0.5 hits for Okamoto. For similar reasons, I’ll also add George Springer over 0.5 hits as well. He owns a .300 average against the fastball/slider from lefties and owns a 26% hit-rate in 30 at-bats against Sale.
KC
@
MIN
Thu, Jun 4 • 7:40 PM ET
ATH
@
CHC
Thu, Jun 4 • 8:05 PM ET
PIT
@
HOU
Thu, Jun 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+103)
Yordan Alvarez is in a prime spot to clear Over 1.5 Total Bases tonight against Pirates right-hander Jared Jones. The Astros slugger owns elite underlying metrics against right-handed pitching, posting a .504 wOBA and 35.71% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances. Alvarez also grades out with 100% arsenal coverage against Jones' pitch mix, giving him multiple paths to success. Jones was roughed up in his first start back from a lengthy absence, surrendering 5 runs and 2 home runs to the Twins in just 4.1 innings. With Alvarez swinging a scorching bat, I expect extra-base hit upside tonight.
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total Home Runs (+710)
Reynolds continues to produce loud contact, carrying a 20% barrel rate, 94 mph average exit velocity, and 53.3% hard-hit rate across his last 29 plate appearances. Houston's Kai-Wei Teng has become vulnerable to the long ball lately, allowing 1.64 home runs per nine innings and a 20% HR/FB rate.
LAD
@
AZ
Thu, Jun 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+101)
Freddie Freeman is one of my favorite looks on the board tonight, particularly for 2+ total bases at plus money. While he only earns a Strong rating in Batters-Box’s default model, his current-season rating is elite. The Dodgers slugger has consistently delivered in Strong-rated spots, especially on the road, where he has cleared this number 55.36% of the time over the last three seasons. He also owns 100% arsenal coverage against Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has struggled badly against left-handed hitters. With Freeman swinging a hot bat and producing elite underlying metrics, this matchup is simply too good to ignore.
Ryne Nelson o5.5 Hits Allowed (-133)
The Dodgers continue to profile as one of the best offenses in baseball, making Ryne Nelson's hits allowed prop an appealing target. Nelson has surrendered 5+ hits in over half of his poorly rated matchups this season and has shown similar results in those spots at home. Los Angeles enters this game red hot, ranking first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO over its last 12 games while remaining among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and fly-ball rate. Even with Shohei Ohtani getting the night off, the rest of the Dodgers lineup is more than capable of doing damage.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Drew Rasmussen o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+122)
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