MLB Picks

The Pirates enter this series with momentum, winning three straight against Philadelphia dating back to last season while handing the ball to breakout starter Braxton Ashcraft. The right-hander owns a 2.77 ERA and has allowed just one run across his last two starts. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola continues to struggle, especially on the road, giving Pittsburgh a strong edge.

Taylor Ward continues to produce for the Orioles, scoring 28 runs through 43 games while heating up at the plate recently. He’s crossed home in back-to-back contests and now faces Zack Littell, who owns a 6.94 ERA. Ward has crushed Littell historically, going 4-for-8 with two homers and three RBI against him.

I’m making this a half-unit wager. Madden doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 92.7MPH on his pitches, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. 

His primary pitch to righties is a sinker, four-seamer combo. 

Enter Kazuma Okamoto, who has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate.

He also owns a .596 xSLG with six homers against those two pitches this season.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. The #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Andrew Abbott's profile is littered with red flags. He ranks in the 28th percentile in xERA, the 15th percentile in xBA, and the 15th percentile in K%.

The Cleveland Guardians are a Top-8 offense vs. lefties in average and wOBA so they're well-equipped to take advantage.

When estimating his home run ability, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage against Jesse Scholtens in today's game.. Kyle Stowers has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jesse Scholtens has a pitch-to-contact profile (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. Kyle Stowers pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The Atlanta Braves have the seventh-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest walk rate of any team the past two weeks, leading to seven Unders in eight games. That trend will continue against a Boston Red Sox team posting a .136 BABIP and .000 ISO with RISP over the past week. 

It’s Rivalry Weekend in MLB, and the Subway Series gets underway at Citi Field on Friday. If you’re going to give me an edge on the New York Yankees with Cam Schlittler on the mound, I’m taking it without hesitation. The Yankees are trading around -150, but I price them closer to -170 favorites in this matchup against the New York Mets. Clay Holmes gets the start for the Mets, and as a right-handed pitcher who relies heavily on a sinker and a sharp slider that moves more like a sweeper, this isn’t an ideal matchup for him. Those pitches tend to lose some effectiveness against left-handed hitters, and the Yankees lineup is loaded with left-handed bats. Outside of Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, much of the Yankees lineup will hit from the left side, and I think they can generate a ton of traffic on the bases against Holmes.

The White Sox rank fourth in wOBA, second in ISO, and second in hard hit rate against right-handed pitching this month – ahead of their North Side counterparts in each category. Pitching has also been a strength. Sean Burke will be backed by a bullpen that owns a clean 1.00 WHIP and sits seventh in xFIP in May.

Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.64 xFIP and ranks in the 16th percentile in xERA yet it sits at 1.88. He is heading for significant regression, and the Texas Rangers are capable of forcing the issue. They rank Top-5 in batting average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and hard hit rate against right-handed pitching on the road.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. In MLB, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

In addition to the favorable weather at Coors Field, with the wind blowing out to his pull side, the matchup against Merrill Kelly is the main reason we’re attacking this home run prop for Hunter Goodman. Kelly relies heavily on a four-seam fastball, cutter, and sinker combination, but he’s not a power pitcher who can simply blow hitters away. He depends much more on command and precise pitch location. That’s a dangerous matchup against Goodman, who hunts fastballs and loves to pull the ball with authority. That aggressive approach can be problematic against high-velocity pitchers, but Kelly doesn’t fit that profile. Instead, Kelly throws the exact type of pitches Goodman can drive out of the ballpark, especially at Coors Field, where the altitude can impact both movement and command. If Kelly misses his spots, he doesn’t have elite velocity to bail him out.

Both teams are trending toward the Under. The Dodgers are 5-10 in their last 15 and have the lethal Blake Snell on the bump, while the Angels are 3-11 O/U in their last 14 and couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.

The San Diego Padres are heating up and have already swept the Seattle Mariners once this season. Randy Vasquez has been far more effective on the road, posting a 1.93 ERA away from Petco Park and allowing only three earned runs across his last two road starts. Emerson Hancock has struggled recently at home, while Seattle has dropped four of its last six games at T-Mobile Park.

Ramos hasa great HR matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right and Aaron Civale on the mound. The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.