Full slate Friday is here! A ton of options for tonight's MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 21, including why I expect Miguel Vargas to go off.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Freddy Peralta |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +110 |
 Joey Cantillo |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | -120 |
 Miguel Vargas |
Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI | -114 |
Freddy Peralta Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110)
How could we not be here right now?
Newly acquired right-hander Freddy Peralta has been horrendous all season long, and that has continued since joining the Tampa Bay Rays.
Through his first three starts with the team, he owns a 7.53 ERA, 6.01 xERA and 1.47 WHIP, while allowing a 49% hard-hit rate and 13.33% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Baltimore Orioles have been making a ton of hard contact and barrels over their last 21 games, producing over a 45% hard-hit rate and nearly 10% barrel rate during that span.
This past week has been a little cold for them, but over their last 12 games, they still own a 116 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .773 OPS.
We witnessed this exact matchup on Aug. 16, when Peralta went 4.2 innings and allowed two runs on one hit in the Rays' 10-2 loss. At +110, this feels like a great spot to back the Orioles after a rough series against the Yankees.
Take this down to even money.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: APPLE
Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Maybe it’s because this writer is Italian and they always seem to stick together, but Cleveland Guardians southpaw Joey Cantillo finds himself in another shove spot in Denver against the Colorado Rockies.
Even with the elevated conditions in Coors, Cantillo’s pitches should still be lethal enough to record six strikeouts against a lineup owning a 25.4% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers at home this season.
Only two hitters in the Rockies lineup have a strikeout rate under 17% over their last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching. The rest are at 25% or higher, with four hitters owning a 31.7% strikeout rate during that stretch.
The Guardians left-hander has maintained a strikeout rate above 30% over his last five outings. Away from home this season, he owns a 25.44% strikeout rate. With how poorly the Rockies have been against southpaws, this feels like a strong spot.
Do not pay more than the price tag above at -120.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEGuardians.TV, Rockies.TV
Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-114)
With New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea on the rubber tonight on the South Side, a right-handed hitter had to be on the radar.
It came down to Randal Grichuk and Miguel Vargas, but the Chicago White Sox third baseman seems to be the better option with the looming possibility of Grichuk being pinch-hit for. However, I endorse the look if you want to risk it with him, but let's dive into why it is Vargas.
The All-Star enters Friday owning a .718 SLG and .410 ISO, while generating a 27.3% ground-ball rate, 51.5% hard-hit rate, and 12.1% barrel rate over his last ten games.
In addition, Vargas enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, covering 100% of Manaea's pitches, and has gone over this prop 55.56% of the time this season when rated elite, in an 18-game sample.
The Mets left-hander has struggled against right-handed hitters, and the last 60 he has faced are producing a 51.5% hard-hit rate, 15.2% barrel rate, and 24.2% ground-ball rate, on top of a .360 xBA and .755 xSLG.
The White Sox will need to get back on track this evening, and it starts with Vargas.
Take this down to -125 if you have to.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, WB New York
- Prop picks: 419-815, -10.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
