The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles open a series in Baltimore with the home side as the -129 favorite, and the total sits at 8.5.
Freddy Peralta arrives with a 7.53 ERA in three starts since the trade to Tampa Bay, while Trevor Rogers counters with a 2.28 mark across 12 outings since June 1.
My Rays vs. Orioles predictions back the home team, and the Over on a total that hasn't accounted for what the visiting starter has become. Read my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 21.
Who will win Rays vs Orioles today: Orioles moneyline (-132)
I like the Baltimore Orioles here and would play them to -145. This is a less-than-ideal matchup for inconsistent Tampa Bay Rays starter Freddy Peralta.
The Orioles put 40.5% of their batted balls in the air and walk at a 10.2% clip, the third-best mark in MLB, which isn't a profile that looks good for Peralta on paper. He's allowed an 18.7% home run per fly ball rate and 20 home runs in 128 innings.
The bat-missing ability that used to help him is gone too, as his strikeout rate has fallen from 28.2% to 21.5%, while in-zone contact has been climbing to 81.5%. The bottom 40 percentile hard-hit rate reflects that too.
This feels like a game when the power bats of Baltimore's lineup get going, and a few homers from the likes of Coby Mayo, Pete Alonso, and Gunnar Henderson make a difference.
COVERS INTEL: Freddy Peralta has thrown his changeup 21.6% of the time this season, up from 9.7% in 2021, and it's gone from a swing-and-miss pitch to a hittable one, allowing a .258 average and .403 slugging with the whiff rate down to 28.1%
Rays vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)
Peralta's fastball is also vulnerable. The O's hit it at a top-10 rate, according to virtually any metric, and he throws it 53.5% of the time while yielding a .471 slugging percentage with a 50.2% hard-hit rate. That's another blinking signal for perhaps a multiple-homer effort from Baltimore's bats.
Meanwhile, the Rays own the best contact rate in MLB at 78.9% and the lowest strikeout rate at 18.7%. Trevor Rogers can't punish that, as he's grading in the 33rd percentile in strikeout rate and the 34th percentile in whiff rate.
This is playable to -110 given the two suspect arms involved.
Rays vs Orioles home run prediction: Gunnar Henderson (+405)
Fifteen of the 20 homers Peralta has allowed have come against left-handed hitters across 83 innings. Those sluggers have posted a .270/.332/.477 slash line, and he's surrendered a 19.2% air pull rate. Gunnar Henderson is Baltimore's primary left-handed power bat, and Camden Yards is where Peralta's fastball problem gets highlighted even more given its relatively homer-friendly dimensions for lefties.
Play this to +330.
- ML/RL bets: 45-44, +1.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 51-38, +14.49 units
Rays vs Orioles weather
Temperatures are a bit cooler than previous nights in Baltimore, reaching the upper 70s, with no notable wind.
Rays vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Rays +120 | Orioles -129
- Run line: Rays +1.5 | Orioles -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rays vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have won six of the last seven head-to-head matchups with the Rays. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Orioles.
How to watch Rays vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Rays starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (5-10, 5.27 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Trevor Rogers (8-8, 4.15 ERA) |
Rays vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
