The weekend has almost arrived, and I have my three favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate up and ready, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Griffin Conine as the highlights.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 21.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Randal Grichuk |
+414 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+456 |
 Griffin Conine |
+388 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +1956 |
Home run pick: Randal Grichuk (+414)
Despite the looming concern of Chicago White Sox outfielder Randal Grichuk being pinch hit for this evening, he's still an incredible option to go yard against New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea.
Grichuk enters Friday as one of the highest-rated hitters on Batters-Box, covering over 91% of Manaea's arsenal. In his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, he owns a .828 SLG and .380 ISO while generating a 50% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 29.5% ground-ball rate.
The Mets left-hander has been struggling against right-handed hitters, and the last 60 he's faced are producing a 51.5% hard-hit rate, 15.2% barrel rate, and 24.2% ground-ball rate, in addition to a .360 xBA and .755 xSLG.
Despite the possibility of Grichuk being taken out of the game early, he's still a strong option. Take this down to +400 at the most.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, WPIX
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+456)
A man we've all been waiting to see turn it up this season is San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., who enters Friday with the third-highest matchup rating in this game over on Batters-Box. Tatis Jr. has been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 10 outings, owning a .765 SLG and .500 ISO while generating a 54.8% hard-hit rate and 25.8% barrel rate.
The Padres' slugger draws Minnesota Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp, who owns a 7.71 ERA against his last 30 right-handed hitters faced. He's allowing those hitters to produce a 50% hard-hit rate, 11.1% barrel rate, and 61.1% elevation rate during that stretch. Opponents also own a .343 xBA, .636 xSLG, and .231 ISO across that span.
With how well Tatis Jr. has been hitting the ball, this price is simply too great to pass up. Take this down to +420.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, SDPA
Home run pick: Griffin Conine (+388)
In a slate peppered with aces and hitters in tough spots to go yard, one man on the Miami Marlins has been firing missiles lately, and it's Griffin Conine. He's producing a 65% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and just a 25% ground-ball rate over his last 10 games, while owning a .767 SLG and .434 ISO.
On top of that, the Marlins' slugger enters today with the highest matchup rating in the current season dataset. Through 13 home games with an elite rating, he's gone deep 23% of the time.
Conine draws Washington Nationals right-hander Brad Lord, who has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .269 with a .444 SLG and .827 OPS this season. Additionally, Conine covers over 88% of Lord's arsenal.
With the way the ball is coming off the outfielder's bat lately, this is a great spot for him to go deep.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, MIAM
- HR picks: 106-368, +17.3 units
Today’s HR combo
| Randal Grichuk |
Trade Now +1956 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
| Griffin Conine |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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